Jefferson County, Oklahoma Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · OK
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 21th
Jefferson County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 20.9, 21th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and wildfire exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $5M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Jefferson County is very low, with a National Risk Index score of 20.9 out of 100 — placing it in the 21st national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Jefferson County's expected losses come from drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 61.55 events per year; wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $218K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; and strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at Medium risk — $581K in expected annual loss and about 3.85 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $5M in expected annual loss for a population of 5K.
Beyond physical exposure, Jefferson County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Jefferson County has received 30 federal disaster declarations since 1970, including 17 for severe storm events and 6 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding (severe storm), declared in March 2025.
Among 77 Oklahoma counties, Jefferson County ranks #72 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | High | 61.55 / yr | $1M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $218K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 3.85 / yr | $581K |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 1.33 / yr | $94K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.70 / yr | $918K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 19.63 / yr | $236K |
| Hail | Low | 10.13 / yr | $117K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $67K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $11K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 1.16 / yr | $195K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.11 / yr | $86 |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 6.47 / yr | $10K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.86 / yr | $1M |
| Lightning | Very Low | 52.50 / yr | $14K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Jefferson County has received 30 federal disaster declarations since 1970, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding in March 2025. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (17), Severe Ice Storm (6), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| July 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| May 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| June 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| May 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| February 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
Showing the 10 most recent of 30 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Jefferson County?
Jefferson County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 20.9 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 21th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Jefferson County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (High, $1M EAL), Wildfire (Low, $218K EAL), Strong Wind (Medium, $581K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Jefferson County compare to other Oklahoma counties?
Jefferson County ranks #72 of 77 Oklahoma counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Jefferson County had?
FEMA records 30 federal disaster declarations for Jefferson County since 1970, most often 17 for severe storm events and 6 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in March 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Jefferson County's $5M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.