Ellis County, Oklahoma Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · OK
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 25th
Ellis County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 24.8, 25th national percentile), driven primarily by ice storm and drought exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $6M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Ellis County at very low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 24.8 out of 100 — placing it in the 25th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 0.68 events per year; drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 89.54 events per year; and wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $481K in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $6M in expected annual loss for a population of 4K.
Beyond physical exposure, Ellis County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Ellis County has received 29 federal disaster declarations since 1990, including 11 for severe storm events and 8 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was 840 Road Fire (fire), declared in March 2025.
Among 77 Oklahoma counties, Ellis County ranks #69 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Ice Storm | High | 0.68 / yr | $1M |
| Drought | High | 89.54 / yr | $1M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.01 / yr | $481K |
| Hail | Low | 7.33 / yr | $289K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 10.47 / yr | $52K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 2.84 / yr | $719K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 3.29 / yr | $280K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.86 / yr | $540K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.29 / yr | $373 |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 5.47 / yr | $85K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $6K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $24K |
| Lightning | Very Low | 46.75 / yr | $16K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.25 / yr | $670K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Ellis County has received 29 federal disaster declarations since 1990, most recently 840 Road Fire in March 2025. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (11), Severe Ice Storm (8), Fire (5).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2025 | Fire | 840 Road Fire |
| February 2024 | Fire | Catesby Fire |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| December 2020 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| November 2019 | Fire | Gauge Fire |
| June 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| March 2017 | Fire | Nw Oklahoma Wildfire Outbreak Complex |
Showing the 10 most recent of 29 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Ellis County?
Ellis County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 24.8 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 25th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Ellis County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Ice Storm (High, $1M EAL), Drought (High, $1M EAL), Wildfire (Low, $481K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Ellis County compare to other Oklahoma counties?
Ellis County ranks #69 of 77 Oklahoma counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Ellis County had?
FEMA records 29 federal disaster declarations for Ellis County since 1990, most often 11 for severe storm events and 8 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was 840 Road Fire, declared in March 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Ellis County's $6M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.