Johnston County, Oklahoma Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · OK
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 25th
Johnston County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 25.4, 25th national percentile), driven primarily by ice storm and wildfire exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $5M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Johnston County at very low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 25.4 out of 100 — placing it in the 25th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Johnston County's expected losses come from ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at High risk — $370K in expected annual loss and about 1.58 events per year; wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $328K in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; and drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $646K in expected annual loss and about 44.59 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $5M in expected annual loss for a population of 10K.
Beyond physical exposure, Johnston County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Johnston County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1981, including 7 for severe storm events and 6 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding (tornado), declared in April 2024.
Among 77 Oklahoma counties, Johnston County ranks #68 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Ice Storm | High | 1.58 / yr | $370K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.01 / yr | $328K |
| Drought | Medium | 44.59 / yr | $646K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 20.47 / yr | $587K |
| Hail | Low | 7.13 / yr | $305K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.56 / yr | $1M |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.15 / yr | $764 |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $71K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 3.05 / yr | $204K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 1.21 / yr | $297K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $9K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 5.95 / yr | $19K |
| Lightning | Low | 55.20 / yr | $60K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.82 / yr | $1M |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Johnston County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1981, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding in April 2024. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (7), Severe Ice Storm (6), Tornado (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| April 2024 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2017 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| May 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| February 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| January 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| May 2008 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 21 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Johnston County?
Johnston County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 25.4 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 25th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Johnston County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Ice Storm (High, $370K EAL), Wildfire (Low, $328K EAL), Drought (Medium, $646K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Johnston County compare to other Oklahoma counties?
Johnston County ranks #68 of 77 Oklahoma counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Johnston County had?
FEMA records 21 federal disaster declarations for Johnston County since 1981, most often 7 for severe storm events and 6 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in April 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Johnston County's $5M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.