Tulsa County, Oklahoma Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · OK
HighComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 98th
Tulsa County faces high composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 97.9, 98th national percentile), driven primarily by ice storm and heat wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $292M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Tulsa County carries a high composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 97.9 out of 100 — placing it in the 98th national percentile and in the upper tier of natural-disaster risk nationally. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Very High risk — $6M in expected annual loss and about 1.28 events per year; heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at High risk — $76M in expected annual loss and about 26.26 events per year; and strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at Very High risk — $11M in expected annual loss and about 6.75 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $292M in expected annual loss for a population of 668K.
Beyond physical exposure, Tulsa County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
History supports the rating: Tulsa County has received 40 federal disaster declarations since 1971, including 11 for severe storm events and 9 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes (severe storm), declared in July 2023.
Among 77 Oklahoma counties, Tulsa County ranks #2 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Ice Storm | Very High | 1.28 / yr | $6M |
| Heat Wave | High | 26.26 / yr | $76M |
| Strong Wind | Very High | 6.75 / yr | $11M |
| Tornado | Very High | 0.68 / yr | $37M |
| Hail | High | 8.99 / yr | $7M |
| Riverine Flood | High | 4.75 / yr | $138M |
| Cold Wave | High | 1.68 / yr | $10M |
| Lightning | High | 54.13 / yr | $1M |
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.00 / yr | $1M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $5M |
| Winter Weather | High | 9.16 / yr | $353K |
| Drought | Medium | 20.66 / yr | $576K |
| Landslide | Low | 0.13 / yr | $5K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $47K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Tulsa County has received 40 federal disaster declarations since 1971, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes in July 2023. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (11), Flood (9), Severe Ice Storm (8).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| July 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes |
| June 2022 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| May 2019 | Flood | Flooding |
| May 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| August 2011 | Fire | 265th West Fire |
Showing the 10 most recent of 40 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Tulsa County?
Tulsa County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 97.9 out of 100, placing it in the High category and the 98th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Tulsa County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Ice Storm (Very High, $6M EAL), Heat Wave (High, $76M EAL), Strong Wind (Very High, $11M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Tulsa County compare to other Oklahoma counties?
Tulsa County ranks #2 of 77 Oklahoma counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a high rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Tulsa County had?
FEMA records 40 federal disaster declarations for Tulsa County since 1971, most often 11 for severe storm events and 9 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes, declared in July 2023.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Tulsa County's $292M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.