McHenry County, North Dakota Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · ND
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 12th
McHenry County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 11.7, 12th national percentile), driven primarily by winter weather and wildfire exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $7M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
McHenry County carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 11.7 out of 100 — placing it in the 12th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at High risk — $547K in expected annual loss and about 21.26 events per year; wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; and ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Medium risk — $442K in expected annual loss and about 0.54 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $7M in expected annual loss for a population of 5K.
Beyond physical exposure, McHenry County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The federal record bears this out: McHenry County has received 32 federal disaster declarations since 1966, including 16 for flood events and 11 for severe storm events. The most recent was Flooding (flood), declared in July 2023.
Among 53 North Dakota counties, McHenry County ranks #29 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Winter Weather | High | 21.26 / yr | $547K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $1M |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.54 / yr | $442K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 22.16 / yr | $2M |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.19 / yr | $2K |
| Hail | Low | 2.02 / yr | $322K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.60 / yr | $606K |
| Drought | Very Low | 18.70 / yr | $17K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 0.96 / yr | $217K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $16K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.57 / yr | $2M |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.95 / yr | $15K |
| Lightning | Very Low | 26.66 / yr | $31K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
McHenry County has received 32 federal disaster declarations since 1966, most recently Flooding in July 2023. Most frequent causes: Flood (16), Severe Storm (11), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| July 2023 | Flood | Flooding |
| July 2022 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Flooding |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2017 | Flood | Flooding |
| August 2014 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| July 2013 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| May 2013 | Flood | Flooding |
| May 2011 | Flood | Flooding |
| April 2010 | Flood | Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 32 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for McHenry County?
McHenry County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 11.7 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 12th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in McHenry County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Winter Weather (High, $547K EAL), Wildfire (Low, $1M EAL), Ice Storm (Medium, $442K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does McHenry County compare to other North Dakota counties?
McHenry County ranks #29 of 53 North Dakota counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has McHenry County had?
FEMA records 32 federal disaster declarations for McHenry County since 1966, most often 16 for flood events and 11 for severe storm events. The most recent was Flooding, declared in July 2023.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. McHenry County's $7M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.