Traill County, North Dakota Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · ND
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 11th
Traill County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 11.0, 11th national percentile), driven primarily by hail and ice storm exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $8M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Traill County carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 11.0 out of 100 — placing it in the 11th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 4.32 events per year; ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Medium risk — $472K in expected annual loss and about 0.61 events per year; and winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Medium risk — $268K in expected annual loss and about 24.06 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $8M in expected annual loss for a population of 8K.
Beyond physical exposure, Traill County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
History supports the rating: Traill County has received 36 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including 21 for flood events and 11 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storm, Tornadoes, and Straight-Line Winds (severe storm), declared in September 2025.
Among 53 North Dakota counties, Traill County ranks #30 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hail | Medium | 4.32 / yr | $2M |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.61 / yr | $472K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 24.06 / yr | $268K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 20.64 / yr | $2M |
| Strong Wind | Low | 2.47 / yr | $534K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.64 / yr | $829K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $16K |
| Drought | Very Low | 3.92 / yr | $10K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.08 / yr | $215 |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 1.11 / yr | $3M |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 1.32 / yr | $31K |
| Lightning | Very Low | 28.48 / yr | $25K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $6K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Traill County has received 36 federal disaster declarations since 1965, most recently Severe Storm, Tornadoes, and Straight-Line Winds in September 2025. Most frequent causes: Flood (21), Severe Storm (11), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| September 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storm, Tornadoes, and Straight-Line Winds |
| February 2024 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds |
| July 2022 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Flooding |
| July 2020 | Flood | Flooding |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| January 2020 | Flood | Flooding |
| June 2019 | Flood | Flooding |
| May 2013 | Flood | Flooding |
| April 2013 | Flood | Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 36 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Traill County?
Traill County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 11.0 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 11th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Traill County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hail (Medium, $2M EAL), Ice Storm (Medium, $472K EAL), Winter Weather (Medium, $268K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Traill County compare to other North Dakota counties?
Traill County ranks #30 of 53 North Dakota counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Traill County had?
FEMA records 36 federal disaster declarations for Traill County since 1965, most often 21 for flood events and 11 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storm, Tornadoes, and Straight-Line Winds, declared in September 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Traill County's $8M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.