Cavalier County, North Dakota Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · ND
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 12th
Cavalier County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 11.8, 12th national percentile), driven primarily by winter weather and ice storm exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $5M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Cavalier County carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 11.8 out of 100 — placing it in the 12th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Medium risk — $164K in expected annual loss and about 20.79 events per year; ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Medium risk — $295K in expected annual loss and about 0.43 events per year; and hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Low risk — $552K in expected annual loss and about 2.16 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $5M in expected annual loss for a population of 4K.
Beyond physical exposure, Cavalier County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The federal record bears this out: Cavalier County has received 26 federal disaster declarations since 1969, including 11 for severe storm events and 11 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm and Flooding (severe storm), declared in July 2022.
Among 53 North Dakota counties, Cavalier County ranks #28 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Winter Weather | Medium | 20.79 / yr | $164K |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.43 / yr | $295K |
| Hail | Low | 2.16 / yr | $552K |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 24.00 / yr | $2M |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $47K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 1.03 / yr | $382K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.15 / yr | $598 |
| Drought | Low | 9.68 / yr | $35K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.58 / yr | $156K |
| Lightning | Very Low | 25.67 / yr | $30K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.71 / yr | $835K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.58 / yr | $6K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $2K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Cavalier County has received 26 federal disaster declarations since 1969, most recently Severe Winter Storm and Flooding in July 2022. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (11), Flood (11), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| July 2022 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Flooding |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2017 | Flood | Flooding |
| July 2013 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| May 2013 | Flood | Flooding |
| May 2011 | Flood | Flooding |
| March 2009 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| July 2007 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| June 2006 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, and Ground Saturation |
Showing the 10 most recent of 26 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Cavalier County?
Cavalier County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 11.8 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 12th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Cavalier County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Winter Weather (Medium, $164K EAL), Ice Storm (Medium, $295K EAL), Hail (Low, $552K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Cavalier County compare to other North Dakota counties?
Cavalier County ranks #28 of 53 North Dakota counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Cavalier County had?
FEMA records 26 federal disaster declarations for Cavalier County since 1969, most often 11 for severe storm events and 11 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm and Flooding, declared in July 2022.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Cavalier County's $5M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.