Durham County, North Carolina Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NC
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 90th
Durham County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 89.6, 90th national percentile), driven primarily by heat wave and tornado exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $91M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Durham County at medium composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 89.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 90th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Medium risk — $5M in expected annual loss and about 5.63 events per year; tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at High risk — $11M in expected annual loss and about 0.12 events per year; and riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Medium risk — $57M in expected annual loss and about 2.07 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $91M in expected annual loss for a population of 325K.
Beyond physical exposure, Durham County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The federal record bears this out: Durham County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1977, including 11 for hurricane events and 3 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 100 North Carolina counties, Durham County ranks #15 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Heat Wave | Medium | 5.63 / yr | $5M |
| Tornado | High | 0.12 / yr | $11M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 2.07 / yr | $57M |
| Lightning | High | 47.27 / yr | $1M |
| Hurricane | Medium | 0.13 / yr | $8M |
| Hail | Medium | 4.19 / yr | $2M |
| Strong Wind | High | 1.31 / yr | $2M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 7.16 / yr | $270K |
| Ice Storm | High | 1.72 / yr | $552K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $2M |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.68 / yr | $1M |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.17 / yr | $1K |
| Drought | Low | 15.64 / yr | $97K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $21K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Durham County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1977, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (11), Snowstorm (3), Tropical Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| September 2025 | Tropical Depression | Tropical Depression Chantal |
| September 2024 | Tropical Storm | Hurricane Helene |
| August 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Debby |
| October 2022 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ian |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Isaias |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2019 | Hurricane | Hurricane Dorian |
| September 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
Showing the 10 most recent of 25 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Durham County?
Durham County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 89.6 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 90th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Durham County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Heat Wave (Medium, $5M EAL), Tornado (High, $11M EAL), Riverine Flood (Medium, $57M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Durham County compare to other North Carolina counties?
Durham County ranks #15 of 100 North Carolina counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Durham County had?
FEMA records 25 federal disaster declarations for Durham County since 1977, most often 11 for hurricane events and 3 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Durham County's $91M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.