Durham County
North Carolina — Natural Disaster Risk Assessment
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 90th
Durham County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 89.6, 90th national percentile), driven primarily by heat wave and tornado exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $91M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Heat Wave | Medium | 5.63 / yr | $5M |
| Tornado | High | 0.12 / yr | $11M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 2.07 / yr | $57M |
| Lightning | High | 47.27 / yr | $1M |
| Hurricane | Medium | 0.13 / yr | $8M |
| Hail | Medium | 4.19 / yr | $2M |
| Strong Wind | High | 1.31 / yr | $2M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 7.16 / yr | $270K |
| Ice Storm | High | 1.72 / yr | $552K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $2M |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.68 / yr | $1M |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.17 / yr | $1K |
| Drought | Low | 15.64 / yr | $97K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $21K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Durham County?
Durham County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 89.6 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 90th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Durham County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Heat Wave (Medium, $5M EAL), Tornado (High, $11M EAL), Riverine Flood (Medium, $57M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Durham County compare to other North Carolina counties?
Durham County ranks #15 of 100 North Carolina counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Durham County's $91M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.