Cumberland County, North Carolina Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NC
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 89th
Cumberland County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 89.5, 89th national percentile), driven primarily by winter weather and heat wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $90M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Cumberland County at medium composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 89.5 out of 100 — placing it in the 89th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Cumberland County's expected losses come from winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Very High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 4.47 events per year; heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Medium risk — $6M in expected annual loss and about 8.89 events per year; and hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at High risk — $19M in expected annual loss and about 0.24 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $90M in expected annual loss for a population of 334K.
Beyond physical exposure, Cumberland County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Cumberland County has received 23 federal disaster declarations since 1984, including 15 for hurricane events and 2 for tropical storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 100 North Carolina counties, Cumberland County ranks #16 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Winter Weather | Very High | 4.47 / yr | $1M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 8.89 / yr | $6M |
| Hurricane | High | 0.24 / yr | $19M |
| Lightning | High | 52.52 / yr | $2M |
| Tornado | High | 0.38 / yr | $10M |
| Ice Storm | High | 1.06 / yr | $1M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 2.14 / yr | $41M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $4M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $733K |
| Hail | Medium | 4.00 / yr | $951K |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 0.47 / yr | $3M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 1.97 / yr | $1M |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.13 / yr | $2K |
| Drought | Low | 10.68 / yr | $114K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Cumberland County has received 23 federal disaster declarations since 1984, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (15), Tropical Storm (2), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| September 2024 | Tropical Storm | Hurricane Helene |
| August 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Debby |
| October 2022 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ian |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Isaias |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2019 | Hurricane | Hurricane Dorian |
| September 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| September 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
Showing the 10 most recent of 23 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Cumberland County?
Cumberland County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 89.5 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 89th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Cumberland County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Winter Weather (Very High, $1M EAL), Heat Wave (Medium, $6M EAL), Hurricane (High, $19M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Cumberland County compare to other North Carolina counties?
Cumberland County ranks #16 of 100 North Carolina counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Cumberland County had?
FEMA records 23 federal disaster declarations for Cumberland County since 1984, most often 15 for hurricane events and 2 for tropical storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Cumberland County's $90M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.