Duplin County, North Carolina Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NC
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 89th
Duplin County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 89.4, 89th national percentile), driven primarily by hurricane and winter weather exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $53M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Duplin County is medium, with a National Risk Index score of 89.4 out of 100 — placing it in the 89th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at High risk — $37M in expected annual loss and about 0.32 events per year; winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at High risk — $406K in expected annual loss and about 3.26 events per year; and strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 1.64 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $53M in expected annual loss for a population of 49K.
Beyond physical exposure, Duplin County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Duplin County has received 26 federal disaster declarations since 1984, including 19 for hurricane events and 2 for tropical storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 100 North Carolina counties, Duplin County ranks #17 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hurricane | High | 0.32 / yr | $37M |
| Winter Weather | High | 3.26 / yr | $406K |
| Strong Wind | High | 1.64 / yr | $1M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.62 / yr | $3M |
| Hail | Medium | 3.66 / yr | $546K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 8.32 / yr | $781K |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.89 / yr | $155K |
| Lightning | Medium | 53.24 / yr | $339K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $486K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.00 / yr | $8M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $84K |
| Drought | Medium | 8.35 / yr | $267K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.42 / yr | $1M |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.12 / yr | $81 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Duplin County has received 26 federal disaster declarations since 1984, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (19), Tropical Storm (2), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| September 2024 | Tropical Storm | Hurricane Helene |
| August 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Debby |
| October 2022 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ian |
| March 2021 | Severe Storm | Tropical Storm Eta |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Isaias |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| October 2019 | Hurricane | Hurricane Dorian |
| September 2019 | Hurricane | Hurricane Dorian |
Showing the 10 most recent of 26 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Duplin County?
Duplin County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 89.4 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 89th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Duplin County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hurricane (High, $37M EAL), Winter Weather (High, $406K EAL), Strong Wind (High, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Duplin County compare to other North Carolina counties?
Duplin County ranks #17 of 100 North Carolina counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Duplin County had?
FEMA records 26 federal disaster declarations for Duplin County since 1984, most often 19 for hurricane events and 2 for tropical storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Duplin County's $53M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.