Dare County, North Carolina Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NC
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 90th
Dare County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 89.6, 90th national percentile), driven primarily by hurricane and lightning exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $81M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Dare County is medium, with a National Risk Index score of 89.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 90th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at High risk — $65M in expected annual loss and about 0.41 events per year; lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 45.92 events per year; and winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at High risk — $365K in expected annual loss and about 2.64 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $81M in expected annual loss for a population of 37K.
Beyond physical exposure, Dare County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Dare County has received 31 federal disaster declarations since 1988, including 22 for hurricane events and 3 for tropical storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 100 North Carolina counties, Dare County ranks #14 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hurricane | High | 0.41 / yr | $65M |
| Lightning | High | 45.92 / yr | $2M |
| Winter Weather | High | 2.64 / yr | $365K |
| Coastal Flood | High | 2.94 / yr | $4M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $546K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 7.36 / yr | $392K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.46 / yr | $7M |
| Tornado | Low | 0.40 / yr | $1M |
| Strong Wind | Low | 0.44 / yr | $349K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $44K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.14 / yr | $23K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.39 / yr | $256K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.04 / yr | $124 |
| Drought | Very Low | 0.28 / yr | $378 |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.80 / yr | $44K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Dare County has received 31 federal disaster declarations since 1988, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (22), Tropical Storm (3), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| October 2024 | Tropical Storm | Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight |
| September 2024 | Tropical Storm | Hurricane Helene |
| August 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Debby |
| October 2022 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ian |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Isaias |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| October 2019 | Hurricane | Hurricane Dorian |
| September 2019 | Hurricane | Hurricane Dorian |
Showing the 10 most recent of 31 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Dare County?
Dare County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 89.6 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 90th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Dare County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hurricane (High, $65M EAL), Lightning (High, $2M EAL), Winter Weather (High, $365K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Dare County compare to other North Carolina counties?
Dare County ranks #14 of 100 North Carolina counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Dare County had?
FEMA records 31 federal disaster declarations for Dare County since 1988, most often 22 for hurricane events and 3 for tropical storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Dare County's $81M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.