Union County, North Carolina Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NC
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 89th
Union County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 89.1, 89th national percentile), driven primarily by ice storm and tornado exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $110M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Union County carries a medium composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 89.1 out of 100 — placing it in the 89th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Very High risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 1.92 events per year; tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at High risk — $16M in expected annual loss and about 0.34 events per year; and riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Medium risk — $73M in expected annual loss and about 2.43 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $110M in expected annual loss for a population of 238K.
Beyond physical exposure, Union County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
History supports the rating: Union County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1977, including 10 for hurricane events and 3 for tropical storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 100 North Carolina counties, Union County ranks #19 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Ice Storm | Very High | 1.92 / yr | $3M |
| Tornado | High | 0.34 / yr | $16M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 2.43 / yr | $73M |
| Strong Wind | High | 2.90 / yr | $3M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $4M |
| Lightning | High | 52.54 / yr | $1M |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.11 / yr | $3M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 0.32 / yr | $4M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 4.68 / yr | $219K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 3.26 / yr | $1M |
| Drought | Medium | 21.84 / yr | $713K |
| Hail | Low | 4.25 / yr | $726K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $41K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.27 / yr | $848 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Union County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1977, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (10), Tropical Storm (3), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| September 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Helene |
| September 2024 | Tropical Storm | Hurricane Helene |
| August 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Debby |
| October 2022 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ian |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Isaias |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2019 | Hurricane | Hurricane Dorian |
| September 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
Showing the 10 most recent of 21 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Union County?
Union County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 89.1 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 89th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Union County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Ice Storm (Very High, $3M EAL), Tornado (High, $16M EAL), Riverine Flood (Medium, $73M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Union County compare to other North Carolina counties?
Union County ranks #19 of 100 North Carolina counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Union County had?
FEMA records 21 federal disaster declarations for Union County since 1977, most often 10 for hurricane events and 3 for tropical storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Union County's $110M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.