Buncombe County, North Carolina Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NC
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 89th
Buncombe County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 89.3, 89th national percentile), driven primarily by landslide and cold wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $82M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Buncombe County at medium composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 89.3 out of 100 — placing it in the 89th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Buncombe County's expected losses come from landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 2.10 events per year; cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at High risk — $17M in expected annual loss and about 3.79 events per year; and lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Very High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 55.06 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $82M in expected annual loss for a population of 269K.
Beyond physical exposure, Buncombe County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Buncombe County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 9 for hurricane events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 100 North Carolina counties, Buncombe County ranks #18 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Landslide | High | 2.10 / yr | $1M |
| Cold Wave | High | 3.79 / yr | $17M |
| Lightning | Very High | 55.06 / yr | $2M |
| Ice Storm | High | 0.85 / yr | $2M |
| Strong Wind | High | 2.76 / yr | $3M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.43 / yr | $48M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $3M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.21 / yr | $4M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $447K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 14.97 / yr | $187K |
| Hail | Medium | 4.25 / yr | $728K |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.02 / yr | $544K |
| Drought | Medium | 29.13 / yr | $409K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $1 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Buncombe County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (9), Flood (3), Tropical Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| September 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Helene |
| September 2024 | Tropical Storm | Hurricane Helene |
| October 2022 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ian |
| September 2021 | Hurricane | Remnants of Tropical Storm Fred |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Isaias |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2019 | Hurricane | Hurricane Dorian |
| September 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
Showing the 10 most recent of 21 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Buncombe County?
Buncombe County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 89.3 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 89th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Buncombe County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Landslide (High, $1M EAL), Cold Wave (High, $17M EAL), Lightning (Very High, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Buncombe County compare to other North Carolina counties?
Buncombe County ranks #18 of 100 North Carolina counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Buncombe County had?
FEMA records 21 federal disaster declarations for Buncombe County since 1973, most often 9 for hurricane events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Buncombe County's $82M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.