Sullivan County, New York Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NY
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 78th
Sullivan County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 78.3, 78th national percentile), driven primarily by riverine flood and hurricane exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $37M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Sullivan County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 78.3 out of 100 — placing it in the 78th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Medium risk — $27M in expected annual loss and about 1.89 events per year; hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Low risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 0.04 events per year; and cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Medium risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 4.37 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $37M in expected annual loss for a population of 78K.
Beyond physical exposure, Sullivan County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The federal record bears this out: Sullivan County has received 35 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including 12 for severe storm events and 8 for hurricane events. The most recent was Remnants of Hurricane Ida (hurricane), declared in September 2021.
Among 62 New York counties, Sullivan County ranks #24 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.89 / yr | $27M |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.04 / yr | $2M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 4.37 / yr | $3M |
| Landslide | Low | 0.90 / yr | $10K |
| Lightning | Medium | 30.44 / yr | $564K |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.29 / yr | $2M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $675K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 2.82 / yr | $781K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 18.32 / yr | $98K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.58 / yr | $92K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 2.16 / yr | $222K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $160 |
| Hail | Low | 2.38 / yr | $138K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $13K |
| Drought | Very Low | 0.50 / yr | $9K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Sullivan County has received 35 federal disaster declarations since 1965, most recently Remnants of Hurricane Ida in September 2021. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (12), Hurricane (8), Snowstorm (5).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| September 2021 | Hurricane | Remnants of Hurricane Ida |
| September 2021 | Hurricane | Remnants of Hurricane Ida |
| August 2021 | Hurricane | Hurricane Henri |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2017 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| September 2011 | Severe Storm | Remnants of Tropical Storm Lee |
| August 2011 | Hurricane | Hurricane Irene |
Showing the 10 most recent of 35 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Sullivan County?
Sullivan County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 78.3 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 78th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Sullivan County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Riverine Flood (Medium, $27M EAL), Hurricane (Low, $2M EAL), Cold Wave (Medium, $3M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Sullivan County compare to other New York counties?
Sullivan County ranks #24 of 62 New York counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Sullivan County had?
FEMA records 35 federal disaster declarations for Sullivan County since 1965, most often 12 for severe storm events and 8 for hurricane events. The most recent was Remnants of Hurricane Ida, declared in September 2021.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Sullivan County's $37M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.