Onondaga County, New York Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NY
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 91th
Onondaga County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 91.3, 91th national percentile), driven primarily by strong wind and winter weather exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $103M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Onondaga County at medium composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 91.3 out of 100 — placing it in the 91st national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at Very High risk — $6M in expected annual loss and about 1.45 events per year; winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Very High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 26.42 events per year; and ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Very High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 1.45 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $103M in expected annual loss for a population of 476K.
Beyond physical exposure, Onondaga County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Onondaga County has received 19 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including 5 for flood events and 4 for severe storm events. The most recent was Remnants of Tropical Storm Fred (hurricane), declared in October 2021.
Among 62 New York counties, Onondaga County ranks #10 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Strong Wind | Very High | 1.45 / yr | $6M |
| Winter Weather | Very High | 26.42 / yr | $1M |
| Ice Storm | Very High | 1.45 / yr | $2M |
| Riverine Flood | High | 1.04 / yr | $77M |
| Lightning | High | 30.07 / yr | $1M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.15 / yr | $6M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 3.68 / yr | $2M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $2M |
| Hail | Medium | 2.31 / yr | $818K |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.02 / yr | $1M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 3.58 / yr | $3M |
| Landslide | Low | 0.30 / yr | $3K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $38K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $278 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Onondaga County has received 19 federal disaster declarations since 1972, most recently Remnants of Tropical Storm Fred in October 2021. Most frequent causes: Flood (5), Severe Storm (4), Hurricane (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| October 2021 | Hurricane | Remnants of Tropical Storm Fred |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| June 2011 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, Tornadoes, and Straight-Line Winds |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| October 2004 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| August 2004 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| August 2003 | Other | Power Outage |
| May 2003 | Severe Ice Storm | Ice Storm |
Showing the 10 most recent of 19 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Onondaga County?
Onondaga County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 91.3 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 91th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Onondaga County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Strong Wind (Very High, $6M EAL), Winter Weather (Very High, $1M EAL), Ice Storm (Very High, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Onondaga County compare to other New York counties?
Onondaga County ranks #10 of 62 New York counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Onondaga County had?
FEMA records 19 federal disaster declarations for Onondaga County since 1972, most often 5 for flood events and 4 for severe storm events. The most recent was Remnants of Tropical Storm Fred, declared in October 2021.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Onondaga County's $103M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.