Monroe County, New York Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NY
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 94th
Monroe County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 93.8, 94th national percentile), driven primarily by cold wave and riverine flood exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $141M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Monroe County at medium composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 93.8 out of 100 — placing it in the 94th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at High risk — $20M in expected annual loss and about 2.95 events per year; riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at High risk — $103M in expected annual loss and about 2.18 events per year; and winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at High risk — $711K in expected annual loss and about 20.63 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $141M in expected annual loss for a population of 758K.
Beyond physical exposure, Monroe County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
History supports the rating: Monroe County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including 4 for flood events and 4 for severe storm events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in March 2020.
Among 62 New York counties, Monroe County ranks #9 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Cold Wave | High | 2.95 / yr | $20M |
| Riverine Flood | High | 2.18 / yr | $103M |
| Winter Weather | High | 20.63 / yr | $711K |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 3.42 / yr | $6M |
| Ice Storm | High | 1.53 / yr | $814K |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.11 / yr | $6M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $2M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 1.30 / yr | $1M |
| Lightning | Medium | 27.28 / yr | $638K |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.03 / yr | $521K |
| Drought | Low | 0.83 / yr | $218K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $39K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $14K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.12 / yr | $467 |
| Hail | Very Low | 1.10 / yr | $130K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Monroe County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1972, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in March 2020. Most frequent causes: Flood (4), Severe Storm (4), Snowstorm (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| November 2017 | Flood | Flooding |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| October 2004 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| August 2004 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| August 2003 | Other | Power Outage |
| May 2003 | Severe Ice Storm | Ice Storm |
| September 2001 | Fire | Fires and Explosions |
Showing the 10 most recent of 21 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Monroe County?
Monroe County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 93.8 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 94th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Monroe County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Cold Wave (High, $20M EAL), Riverine Flood (High, $103M EAL), Winter Weather (High, $711K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Monroe County compare to other New York counties?
Monroe County ranks #9 of 62 New York counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Monroe County had?
FEMA records 21 federal disaster declarations for Monroe County since 1972, most often 4 for flood events and 4 for severe storm events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in March 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Monroe County's $141M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.