Orange County, New York Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NY
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 91th
Orange County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 90.6, 91th national percentile), driven primarily by strong wind and winter weather exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $99M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Orange County is medium, with a National Risk Index score of 90.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 91st national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at High risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 4.61 events per year; winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at High risk — $639K in expected annual loss and about 14.64 events per year; and riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at High risk — $63M in expected annual loss and about 2.75 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $99M in expected annual loss for a population of 401K.
Beyond physical exposure, Orange County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Orange County has received 36 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including 10 for severe storm events and 10 for hurricane events. The most recent was Jennings Creek Fire (fire), declared in November 2024.
Among 62 New York counties, Orange County ranks #12 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Strong Wind | High | 4.61 / yr | $4M |
| Winter Weather | High | 14.64 / yr | $639K |
| Riverine Flood | High | 2.75 / yr | $63M |
| Landslide | Medium | 1.00 / yr | $89K |
| Hurricane | Medium | 0.07 / yr | $10M |
| Cold Wave | High | 1.32 / yr | $7M |
| Lightning | High | 30.15 / yr | $1M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $4M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 5.74 / yr | $3M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.26 / yr | $5M |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.83 / yr | $356K |
| Drought | Medium | 1.25 / yr | $710K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $56K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $618 |
| Coastal Flood | Low | 3.69 / yr | $73K |
| Hail | Low | 2.43 / yr | $168K |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Orange County has received 36 federal disaster declarations since 1965, most recently Jennings Creek Fire in November 2024. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (10), Hurricane (10), Snowstorm (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| November 2024 | Fire | Jennings Creek Fire |
| July 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| September 2021 | Hurricane | Remnants of Hurricane Ida |
| September 2021 | Hurricane | Remnants of Hurricane Ida |
| August 2021 | Hurricane | Hurricane Henri |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| September 2011 | Severe Storm | Remnants of Tropical Storm Lee |
Showing the 10 most recent of 36 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Orange County?
Orange County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 90.6 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 91th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Orange County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Strong Wind (High, $4M EAL), Winter Weather (High, $639K EAL), Riverine Flood (High, $63M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Orange County compare to other New York counties?
Orange County ranks #12 of 62 New York counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Orange County had?
FEMA records 36 federal disaster declarations for Orange County since 1965, most often 10 for severe storm events and 10 for hurricane events. The most recent was Jennings Creek Fire, declared in November 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Orange County's $99M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.