Grant County, New Mexico Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NM
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 74th
Grant County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 74.1, 74th national percentile), driven primarily by wildfire and riverine flood exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $21M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Grant County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 74.1 out of 100 — placing it in the 74th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Grant County's expected losses come from wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Medium risk — $5M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Medium risk — $15M in expected annual loss and about 2.00 events per year; and winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Medium risk — $151K in expected annual loss and about 7.39 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $21M in expected annual loss for a population of 28K.
Beyond physical exposure, Grant County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Grant County has received 13 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including 5 for flood events and 4 for fire events. The most recent was Trout Fire (fire), declared in June 2025.
Among 33 New Mexico counties, Grant County ranks #17 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.01 / yr | $5M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 2.00 / yr | $15M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 7.39 / yr | $151K |
| Lightning | Medium | 65.23 / yr | $446K |
| Landslide | Low | 2.15 / yr | $4K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 1.52 / yr | $343K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $179K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $320 |
| Drought | Low | 100.86 / yr | $37K |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.14 / yr | $64K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $7K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $692 |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.05 / yr | $22K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.14 / yr | $14K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $3K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Grant County has received 13 federal disaster declarations since 1972, most recently Trout Fire in June 2025. Most frequent causes: Flood (5), Fire (4), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| June 2025 | Fire | Trout Fire |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| May 2012 | Fire | Whitewater-Baldy Fire Complex |
| March 2011 | Fire | Quail Ridge Fire |
| August 2006 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| May 2000 | Fire | Severe Fire Threats |
| June 1993 | Flood | Severe Storms & Flooding |
| January 1985 | Flood | Severe Storms & Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 13 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Grant County?
Grant County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 74.1 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 74th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Grant County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Wildfire (Medium, $5M EAL), Riverine Flood (Medium, $15M EAL), Winter Weather (Medium, $151K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Grant County compare to other New Mexico counties?
Grant County ranks #17 of 33 New Mexico counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Grant County had?
FEMA records 13 federal disaster declarations for Grant County since 1972, most often 5 for flood events and 4 for fire events. The most recent was Trout Fire, declared in June 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Grant County's $21M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.