San Miguel County, New Mexico Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NM
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 75th
San Miguel County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 74.6, 75th national percentile), driven primarily by wildfire and riverine flood exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $21M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates San Miguel County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 74.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 75th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Medium risk — $5M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Medium risk — $14M in expected annual loss and about 1.64 events per year; and winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Medium risk — $138K in expected annual loss and about 15.24 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $21M in expected annual loss for a population of 27K.
Beyond physical exposure, San Miguel County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: San Miguel County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including 10 for fire events and 4 for severe storm events. The most recent was Las Tusas Fire (fire), declared in May 2023.
Among 33 New Mexico counties, San Miguel County ranks #15 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.01 / yr | $5M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.64 / yr | $14M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 15.24 / yr | $138K |
| Landslide | Low | 1.84 / yr | $6K |
| Lightning | Medium | 62.40 / yr | $300K |
| Drought | Low | 114.95 / yr | $89K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $159K |
| Hail | Low | 1.29 / yr | $119K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.37 / yr | $317K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $45 |
| Strong Wind | Low | 0.29 / yr | $127K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.44 / yr | $87K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.37 / yr | $9K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.11 / yr | $1K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
San Miguel County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1965, most recently Las Tusas Fire in May 2023. Most frequent causes: Fire (10), Severe Storm (4), Flood (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| May 2023 | Fire | Las Tusas Fire |
| May 2022 | Fire | Wildfires, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Mudflows, and Debris Flows |
| April 2022 | Fire | Calf Canyon Fire |
| April 2022 | Fire | Hermit's Peak Fire |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| October 2014 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| October 2014 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| October 2013 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, and Mudslides |
| June 2013 | Fire | Tres Lagunas Fire |
Showing the 10 most recent of 21 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for San Miguel County?
San Miguel County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 74.6 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 75th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in San Miguel County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Wildfire (Medium, $5M EAL), Riverine Flood (Medium, $14M EAL), Winter Weather (Medium, $138K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does San Miguel County compare to other New Mexico counties?
San Miguel County ranks #15 of 33 New Mexico counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has San Miguel County had?
FEMA records 21 federal disaster declarations for San Miguel County since 1965, most often 10 for fire events and 4 for severe storm events. The most recent was Las Tusas Fire, declared in May 2023.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. San Miguel County's $21M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.