Taos County, New Mexico Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NM
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 74th
Taos County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 74.3, 74th national percentile), driven primarily by wildfire and avalanche exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $22M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Taos County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 74.3 out of 100 — placing it in the 74th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Taos County's expected losses come from wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Medium risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; avalanche (fast-moving snow and debris sliding down steep mountain slopes) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 0.13 events per year; and winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at High risk — $340K in expected annual loss and about 25.13 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $22M in expected annual loss for a population of 34K.
Beyond physical exposure, Taos County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Taos County has received 10 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 3 for flood events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in April 2020.
Among 33 New Mexico counties, Taos County ranks #16 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.00 / yr | $3M |
| Avalanche | High | 0.13 / yr | $2M |
| Winter Weather | High | 25.13 / yr | $340K |
| Landslide | Medium | 0.89 / yr | $54K |
| Lightning | High | 70.00 / yr | $696K |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 0.43 / yr | $14M |
| Drought | Low | 110.59 / yr | $241K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $339K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.17 / yr | $413K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.16 / yr | $179K |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.73 / yr | $40K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.09 / yr | $50K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.05 / yr | $9K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $2K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Taos County has received 10 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in April 2020. Most frequent causes: Flood (3), Biological (2), Severe Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| October 2013 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, and Mudslides |
| March 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Extreme Cold Temperatures |
| August 2006 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| May 2000 | Fire | Severe Forest Fire |
| May 2000 | Fire | Severe Fire Threats |
| June 1979 | Flood | Severe Storms, Snowmelt & Flooding |
| May 1973 | Flood | Severe Storms, Snow Melt & Flooding |
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Taos County?
Taos County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 74.3 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 74th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Taos County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Wildfire (Medium, $3M EAL), Avalanche (High, $2M EAL), Winter Weather (High, $340K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Taos County compare to other New Mexico counties?
Taos County ranks #16 of 33 New Mexico counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Taos County had?
FEMA records 10 federal disaster declarations for Taos County since 1973, most often 3 for flood events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in April 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Taos County's $22M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.