McKinley County, New Mexico Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NM
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 78th
McKinley County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 78.2, 78th national percentile), driven primarily by lightning and winter weather exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $21M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
McKinley County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 78.2 out of 100 — placing it in the 78th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at High risk — $938K in expected annual loss and about 54.72 events per year; winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at High risk — $230K in expected annual loss and about 15.48 events per year; and cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Medium risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 0.05 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $21M in expected annual loss for a population of 72K.
Beyond physical exposure, McKinley County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: McKinley County has received 11 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including 5 for flood events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in April 2020.
Among 33 New Mexico counties, McKinley County ranks #13 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Lightning | High | 54.72 / yr | $938K |
| Winter Weather | High | 15.48 / yr | $230K |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 0.05 / yr | $3M |
| Landslide | Medium | 1.63 / yr | $22K |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.43 / yr | $15M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $191K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $717K |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $9 |
| Heat Wave | Low | 0.63 / yr | $119K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $45 |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $9K |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.10 / yr | $14K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.06 / yr | $25K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.09 / yr | $8K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 101.01 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
McKinley County has received 11 federal disaster declarations since 1972, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in April 2020. Most frequent causes: Flood (5), Biological (2), Fire (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| October 2013 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, and Mudslides |
| September 2010 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| August 2006 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| May 2000 | Fire | Severe Forest Fire |
| May 2000 | Fire | Severe Fire Threats |
| June 1993 | Flood | Severe Storms & Flooding |
| May 1973 | Flood | Severe Storms, Snow Melt & Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 11 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for McKinley County?
McKinley County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 78.2 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 78th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in McKinley County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Lightning (High, $938K EAL), Winter Weather (High, $230K EAL), Cold Wave (Medium, $3M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does McKinley County compare to other New Mexico counties?
McKinley County ranks #13 of 33 New Mexico counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has McKinley County had?
FEMA records 11 federal disaster declarations for McKinley County since 1972, most often 5 for flood events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in April 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. McKinley County's $21M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.