Rio Arriba County, New Mexico Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NM
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 81th
Rio Arriba County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 80.5, 81th national percentile), driven primarily by wildfire and landslide exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $27M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Rio Arriba County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 80.5 out of 100 — placing it in the 81st national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Medium risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Medium risk — $78K in expected annual loss and about 2.59 events per year; and lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 65.43 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $27M in expected annual loss for a population of 40K.
Beyond physical exposure, Rio Arriba County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Rio Arriba County has received 16 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 5 for fire events and 4 for severe storm events. The most recent was South Fork Fire, Salt Fire, and Flooding (fire), declared in June 2024.
Among 33 New Mexico counties, Rio Arriba County ranks #11 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.00 / yr | $3M |
| Landslide | Medium | 2.59 / yr | $78K |
| Lightning | High | 65.43 / yr | $1M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.18 / yr | $20M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $954K |
| Drought | Medium | 106.28 / yr | $326K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 23.52 / yr | $36K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $179 |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.05 / yr | $265K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.23 / yr | $85K |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.29 / yr | $65K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.08 / yr | $62K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.23 / yr | $53K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $3K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Rio Arriba County has received 16 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently South Fork Fire, Salt Fire, and Flooding in June 2024. Most frequent causes: Fire (5), Severe Storm (4), Flood (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| June 2024 | Fire | South Fork Fire, Salt Fire, and Flooding |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| October 2014 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| October 2013 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, and Mudslides |
| June 2011 | Fire | Las Conchas Fire |
| March 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Extreme Cold Temperatures |
| August 2006 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| May 2002 | Fire | Nm - Borrego Fire - 5-23-02 |
Showing the 10 most recent of 16 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Rio Arriba County?
Rio Arriba County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 80.5 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 81th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Rio Arriba County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Wildfire (Medium, $3M EAL), Landslide (Medium, $78K EAL), Lightning (High, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Rio Arriba County compare to other New Mexico counties?
Rio Arriba County ranks #11 of 33 New Mexico counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Rio Arriba County had?
FEMA records 16 federal disaster declarations for Rio Arriba County since 1973, most often 5 for fire events and 4 for severe storm events. The most recent was South Fork Fire, Salt Fire, and Flooding, declared in June 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Rio Arriba County's $27M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.