Valencia County, New Mexico Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NM
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 82th
Valencia County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 82.3, 82th national percentile), driven primarily by earthquake and riverine flood exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $38M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Valencia County carries a medium composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 82.3 out of 100 — placing it in the 82nd national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Medium risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Medium risk — $30M in expected annual loss and about 0.61 events per year; and lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at High risk — $913K in expected annual loss and about 57.70 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $38M in expected annual loss for a population of 76K.
Beyond physical exposure, Valencia County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Valencia County has received 15 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 9 for fire events and 2 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Flooding, and Landslides (flood), declared in July 2025.
Among 33 New Mexico counties, Valencia County ranks #10 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Earthquake | Medium | 0.00 / yr | $4M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 0.61 / yr | $30M |
| Lightning | High | 57.70 / yr | $913K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $727K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 7.60 / yr | $190K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 2.42 / yr | $724K |
| Hail | Low | 0.55 / yr | $348K |
| Drought | Low | 53.49 / yr | $174K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 0.27 / yr | $209K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.07 / yr | $175K |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $16 |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.05 / yr | $130K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $6K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.19 / yr | $19 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Valencia County has received 15 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Severe Storms, Flooding, and Landslides in July 2025. Most frequent causes: Fire (9), Flood (2), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| July 2025 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, and Landslides |
| June 2025 | Fire | Cotton 2 Fire |
| June 2025 | Fire | Desert Willow Fire Complex |
| April 2025 | Fire | Rio Grande Fire |
| May 2022 | Fire | Wildfires, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Mudflows, and Debris Flows |
| April 2022 | Fire | Big Hole Fire |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| March 2019 | Fire | Ironworks Fire |
| February 2007 | Fire | Belen Fire |
Showing the 10 most recent of 15 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Valencia County?
Valencia County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 82.3 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 82th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Valencia County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Earthquake (Medium, $4M EAL), Riverine Flood (Medium, $30M EAL), Lightning (High, $913K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Valencia County compare to other New Mexico counties?
Valencia County ranks #10 of 33 New Mexico counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Valencia County had?
FEMA records 15 federal disaster declarations for Valencia County since 1973, most often 9 for fire events and 2 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Flooding, and Landslides, declared in July 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Valencia County's $38M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.