Lincoln County

New Mexico — Natural Disaster Risk Assessment

Low

Composite Risk Score

79.5

National percentile: 79th

Lincoln County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 79.5, 79th national percentile), driven primarily by wildfire and winter weather exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $28M.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025

Expected Annual Loss $28M Annualized county-level EAL
Social Vulnerability Very High Population sensitivity
Community Resilience Very Low Capacity to recover
Population 20K Latest estimate

Top Hazards

Wildfire
High $15M/yr
Winter Weather
High $204K/yr
Lightning
High $639K/yr

All 18 Hazard Risks

Wildfire High 0.01 / yr $15M
Winter Weather High 8.37 / yr $204K
Lightning High 59.22 / yr $639K
Riverine Flood Medium 2.32 / yr $12M
Landslide Low 1.80 / yr $7K
Ice Storm Medium 0.27 / yr $140K
Volcanic Activity Very Low 0.00 / yr $7
Hail Low 0.65 / yr $117K
Avalanche Very Low 0.01 / yr $123
Earthquake Very Low 0.00 / yr $31K
Drought Very Low 108.21 / yr $2K
Strong Wind Very Low 0.22 / yr $96K
Hurricane Very Low 0.01 / yr $3K
Cold Wave Very Low 0.12 / yr $69K
Tornado Very Low 0.45 / yr $47K
Heat Wave Very Low 0.37 / yr $8K
Coastal Flood Very Low 0.00 / yr $0
Tsunami Very Low 0.00 / yr $0

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the overall natural disaster risk for Lincoln County?

Lincoln County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 79.5 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 79th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.

What are the top natural hazards in Lincoln County?

The three highest-rated hazards are Wildfire (High, $15M EAL), Winter Weather (High, $204K EAL), Lightning (High, $639K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.

How does Lincoln County compare to other New Mexico counties?

Lincoln County ranks #12 of 33 New Mexico counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.

What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?

EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Lincoln County's $28M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.