Lincoln County, New Mexico Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NM
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 79th
Lincoln County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 79.5, 79th national percentile), driven primarily by wildfire and winter weather exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $28M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Lincoln County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 79.5 out of 100 — placing it in the 79th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at High risk — $15M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at High risk — $204K in expected annual loss and about 8.37 events per year; and lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at High risk — $639K in expected annual loss and about 59.22 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $28M in expected annual loss for a population of 20K.
Beyond physical exposure, Lincoln County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Lincoln County has received 35 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including 17 for fire events and 9 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Flooding, and Landslides (flood), declared in July 2025.
Among 33 New Mexico counties, Lincoln County ranks #12 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Wildfire | High | 0.01 / yr | $15M |
| Winter Weather | High | 8.37 / yr | $204K |
| Lightning | High | 59.22 / yr | $639K |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 2.32 / yr | $12M |
| Landslide | Low | 1.80 / yr | $7K |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.27 / yr | $140K |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $7 |
| Hail | Low | 0.65 / yr | $117K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $123 |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $31K |
| Drought | Very Low | 108.21 / yr | $2K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.22 / yr | $96K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $3K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.12 / yr | $69K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.45 / yr | $47K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.37 / yr | $8K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Lincoln County has received 35 federal disaster declarations since 1965, most recently Severe Storms, Flooding, and Landslides in July 2025. Most frequent causes: Fire (17), Flood (9), Severe Storm (6).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| July 2025 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, and Landslides |
| July 2025 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, and Landslides |
| June 2024 | Fire | South Fork Fire, Salt Fire, and Flooding |
| June 2024 | Fire | Salt Fire |
| June 2024 | Fire | South Fork Fire |
| May 2024 | Fire | Blue 2 Fire |
| May 2022 | Fire | Wildfires, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Mudflows, and Debris Flows |
| April 2022 | Fire | Mcbride Fire |
| April 2022 | Fire | Nogal Canyon Fire |
| April 2021 | Fire | Three Rivers Fire |
Showing the 10 most recent of 35 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Lincoln County?
Lincoln County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 79.5 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 79th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Lincoln County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Wildfire (High, $15M EAL), Winter Weather (High, $204K EAL), Lightning (High, $639K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Lincoln County compare to other New Mexico counties?
Lincoln County ranks #12 of 33 New Mexico counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Lincoln County had?
FEMA records 35 federal disaster declarations for Lincoln County since 1965, most often 17 for fire events and 9 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Flooding, and Landslides, declared in July 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Lincoln County's $28M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.