Roseau County, Minnesota Natural Disaster Risk

FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MN

Low

Composite Risk Score

43.9

National percentile: 44th

Roseau County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 43.9, 44th national percentile), driven primarily by wildfire and drought exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $16M.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025

Risk Overview

Roseau County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 43.9 out of 100 — placing it in the 44th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.

Most of Roseau County's expected losses come from wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 20.95 events per year; and winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Medium risk — $228K in expected annual loss and about 18.53 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $16M in expected annual loss for a population of 15K.

Beyond physical exposure, Roseau County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.

The federal record bears this out: Roseau County has received 26 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including 16 for flood events and 6 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms and Flooding (flood), declared in July 2023.

Among 87 Minnesota counties, Roseau County ranks #42 for overall natural disaster risk.

Expected Annual Loss $16M Annualized county-level EAL
Social Vulnerability Low Population sensitivity
Community Resilience High Capacity to recover
Population 15K Latest estimate

Top Hazards

Medium $2M/yr
Medium $1M/yr
Medium $228K/yr

All 18 Hazard Risks

Wildfire Medium 0.01 / yr$2M
Drought Medium 20.95 / yr$1M
Winter Weather Medium 18.53 / yr$228K
Riverine Flood Low 0.71 / yr$10M
Cold Wave Low 21.21 / yr$1M
Ice Storm Low 0.31 / yr$103K
Hail Low 1.54 / yr$180K
Landslide Very Low 0.17 / yr$374
Lightning Very Low 26.36 / yr$82K
Tornado Very Low 0.43 / yr$214K
Heat Wave Very Low 0.79 / yr$44K
Strong Wind Very Low 0.76 / yr$132K
Earthquake Very Low 0.00 / yr$2K
Avalanche Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Coastal Flood Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Hurricane Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Tsunami Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Volcanic Activity Very Low 0.00 / yr$0

Disaster History

Roseau County has received 26 federal disaster declarations since 1965, most recently Severe Storms and Flooding in July 2023. Most frequent causes: Flood (16), Severe Storm (6), Biological (2).

DeclaredTypeDisaster
July 2023FloodSevere Storms and Flooding
July 2022FloodSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding
April 2020BiologicalCovid-19 Pandemic
March 2020BiologicalCovid-19
June 2019FloodSevere Winter Storm, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding
July 2014FloodSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides
May 2011FloodSevere Storms and Flooding
April 2009Severe StormSevere Storms and Flooding
June 2006FloodFlooding
September 2005HurricaneHurricane Katrina Evacuation

Showing the 10 most recent of 26 declarations.

Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the overall natural disaster risk for Roseau County?

Roseau County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 43.9 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 44th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.

What are the top natural hazards in Roseau County?

The three highest-rated hazards are Wildfire (Medium, $2M EAL), Drought (Medium, $1M EAL), Winter Weather (Medium, $228K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.

How does Roseau County compare to other Minnesota counties?

Roseau County ranks #42 of 87 Minnesota counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.

How many federally declared disasters has Roseau County had?

FEMA records 26 federal disaster declarations for Roseau County since 1965, most often 16 for flood events and 6 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms and Flooding, declared in July 2023.

What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?

EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Roseau County's $16M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.