Douglas County, Minnesota Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MN
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 44th
Douglas County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 44.3, 44th national percentile), driven primarily by winter weather and cold wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $16M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Douglas County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 44.3 out of 100 — placing it in the 44th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at High risk — $533K in expected annual loss and about 18.59 events per year; cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Medium risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 13.90 events per year; and strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 2.57 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $16M in expected annual loss for a population of 39K.
Beyond physical exposure, Douglas County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
History supports the rating: Douglas County has received 14 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including 5 for severe storm events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding (severe storm), declared in August 2022.
Among 87 Minnesota counties, Douglas County ranks #41 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Winter Weather | High | 18.59 / yr | $533K |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 13.90 / yr | $4M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 2.57 / yr | $1M |
| Landslide | Low | 0.16 / yr | $5K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.47 / yr | $2M |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $56K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.32 / yr | $7M |
| Hail | Low | 3.85 / yr | $277K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.20 / yr | $72K |
| Lightning | Low | 31.76 / yr | $203K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 2.05 / yr | $242K |
| Drought | Low | 2.76 / yr | $42K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $16K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Douglas County has received 14 federal disaster declarations since 1965, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding in August 2022. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (5), Flood (5), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| August 2022 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| July 2022 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2013 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| April 2009 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| May 2001 | Flood | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, and Tornadoes |
| April 1997 | Flood | Severe Flooding, High Winds,Severe Storms |
| January 1997 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
Showing the 10 most recent of 14 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Douglas County?
Douglas County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 44.3 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 44th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Douglas County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Winter Weather (High, $533K EAL), Cold Wave (Medium, $4M EAL), Strong Wind (Medium, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Douglas County compare to other Minnesota counties?
Douglas County ranks #41 of 87 Minnesota counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Douglas County had?
FEMA records 14 federal disaster declarations for Douglas County since 1965, most often 5 for severe storm events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in August 2022.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Douglas County's $16M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.