Chisago County, Minnesota Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MN
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 45th
Chisago County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 44.5, 45th national percentile), driven primarily by strong wind and hail exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $23M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Chisago County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 44.5 out of 100 — placing it in the 45th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 3.64 events per year; hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 5.26 events per year; and wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $199K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $23M in expected annual loss for a population of 57K.
Beyond physical exposure, Chisago County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Chisago County has received 12 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including 5 for flood events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in April 2020.
Among 87 Minnesota counties, Chisago County ranks #40 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Strong Wind | Medium | 3.64 / yr | $2M |
| Hail | Medium | 5.26 / yr | $1M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $199K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.23 / yr | $3M |
| Cold Wave | Low | 9.63 / yr | $2M |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.18 / yr | $13M |
| Lightning | Low | 33.17 / yr | $438K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.07 / yr | $2K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 17.16 / yr | $82K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 2.95 / yr | $357K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.39 / yr | $79K |
| Drought | Low | 2.33 / yr | $67K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $7K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Chisago County has received 12 federal disaster declarations since 1965, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in April 2020. Most frequent causes: Flood (5), Biological (2), Severe Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, and Tornadoes |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| May 2001 | Flood | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, and Tornadoes |
| October 2000 | Fire | Mn - Carlos Edge Fire Complex - 10/19/2000 |
| June 1996 | Flood | Flooding and Severe Storms |
| June 1976 | Drought | Drought |
| July 1975 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes & Flooding |
| August 1972 | Flood | Severe Storms & Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 12 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Chisago County?
Chisago County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 44.5 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 45th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Chisago County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Strong Wind (Medium, $2M EAL), Hail (Medium, $1M EAL), Wildfire (Low, $199K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Chisago County compare to other Minnesota counties?
Chisago County ranks #40 of 87 Minnesota counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Chisago County had?
FEMA records 12 federal disaster declarations for Chisago County since 1965, most often 5 for flood events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in April 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Chisago County's $23M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.