Goodhue County, Minnesota Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MN
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 43th
Goodhue County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 43.3, 43th national percentile), driven primarily by strong wind and hail exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $26M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Goodhue County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 43.3 out of 100 — placing it in the 43rd national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Goodhue County's expected losses come from strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at Medium risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 4.40 events per year; hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 5.84 events per year; and landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Low risk — $25K in expected annual loss and about 0.26 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $26M in expected annual loss for a population of 48K.
Beyond physical exposure, Goodhue County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Goodhue County has received 18 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including 8 for flood events and 5 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms and Flooding (flood), declared in June 2024.
Among 87 Minnesota counties, Goodhue County ranks #44 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Strong Wind | Medium | 4.40 / yr | $3M |
| Hail | Medium | 5.84 / yr | $2M |
| Landslide | Low | 0.26 / yr | $25K |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.58 / yr | $5M |
| Drought | Low | 4.72 / yr | $375K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.79 / yr | $14M |
| Winter Weather | Low | 18.47 / yr | $122K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 9.21 / yr | $2M |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 4.26 / yr | $394K |
| Lightning | Low | 37.26 / yr | $216K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.61 / yr | $55K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $6K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $7K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Goodhue County has received 18 federal disaster declarations since 1965, most recently Severe Storms and Flooding in June 2024. Most frequent causes: Flood (8), Severe Storm (5), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| June 2024 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2019 | Flood | Severe Winter Storm, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| November 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| July 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| October 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| March 2010 | Flood | Flooding |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| June 2002 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding and Tornadoes |
Showing the 10 most recent of 18 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Goodhue County?
Goodhue County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 43.3 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 43th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Goodhue County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Strong Wind (Medium, $3M EAL), Hail (Medium, $2M EAL), Landslide (Low, $25K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Goodhue County compare to other Minnesota counties?
Goodhue County ranks #44 of 87 Minnesota counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Goodhue County had?
FEMA records 18 federal disaster declarations for Goodhue County since 1965, most often 8 for flood events and 5 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms and Flooding, declared in June 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Goodhue County's $26M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.