Stearns County, Minnesota Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MN
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 88th
Stearns County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 87.6, 88th national percentile), driven primarily by strong wind and hail exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $79M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Stearns County at medium composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 87.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 88th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at High risk — $5M in expected annual loss and about 3.23 events per year; hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at High risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 4.94 events per year; and tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at High risk — $11M in expected annual loss and about 0.90 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $79M in expected annual loss for a population of 158K.
Beyond physical exposure, Stearns County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
History supports the rating: Stearns County has received 13 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including 5 for flood events and 4 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding (severe storm), declared in July 2022.
Among 87 Minnesota counties, Stearns County ranks #6 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Strong Wind | High | 3.23 / yr | $5M |
| Hail | High | 4.94 / yr | $4M |
| Tornado | High | 0.90 / yr | $11M |
| Winter Weather | High | 18.47 / yr | $558K |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 0.79 / yr | $48M |
| Lightning | High | 32.88 / yr | $1M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 12.74 / yr | $6M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $336K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 2.63 / yr | $1M |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.45 / yr | $284K |
| Landslide | Low | 0.23 / yr | $5K |
| Drought | Low | 6.81 / yr | $266K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $51K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Stearns County has received 13 federal disaster declarations since 1965, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding in July 2022. Most frequent causes: Flood (5), Severe Storm (4), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| July 2022 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2013 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| July 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, and Tornadoes |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| May 2001 | Flood | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, and Tornadoes |
| April 1997 | Flood | Severe Flooding, High Winds,Severe Storms |
| January 1997 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| June 1976 | Drought | Drought |
Showing the 10 most recent of 13 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Stearns County?
Stearns County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 87.6 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 88th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Stearns County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Strong Wind (High, $5M EAL), Hail (High, $4M EAL), Tornado (High, $11M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Stearns County compare to other Minnesota counties?
Stearns County ranks #6 of 87 Minnesota counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Stearns County had?
FEMA records 13 federal disaster declarations for Stearns County since 1965, most often 5 for flood events and 4 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in July 2022.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Stearns County's $79M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.