Nicollet County, Minnesota Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MN
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 45th
Nicollet County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 45.4, 45th national percentile), driven primarily by strong wind and winter weather exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $18M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Nicollet County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 45.4 out of 100 — placing it in the 45th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Nicollet County's expected losses come from strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 3.99 events per year; winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Medium risk — $255K in expected annual loss and about 21.11 events per year; and hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Medium risk — $954K in expected annual loss and about 5.37 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $18M in expected annual loss for a population of 34K.
Beyond physical exposure, Nicollet County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The federal record bears this out: Nicollet County has received 22 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including 13 for flood events and 3 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms and Flooding (flood), declared in June 2024.
Among 87 Minnesota counties, Nicollet County ranks #39 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Strong Wind | High | 3.99 / yr | $2M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 21.11 / yr | $255K |
| Hail | Medium | 5.37 / yr | $954K |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 10.89 / yr | $3M |
| Drought | Low | 14.01 / yr | $430K |
| Landslide | Low | 0.06 / yr | $4K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.38 / yr | $2M |
| Heat Wave | Low | 5.21 / yr | $521K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.79 / yr | $8M |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.43 / yr | $57K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $8K |
| Lightning | Very Low | 36.65 / yr | $46K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $9K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Nicollet County has received 22 federal disaster declarations since 1965, most recently Severe Storms and Flooding in June 2024. Most frequent causes: Flood (13), Severe Storm (3), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| June 2024 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2019 | Flood | Severe Winter Storm, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| September 2018 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| July 2014 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| May 2011 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| October 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| July 2010 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| April 2010 | Flood | Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 22 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Nicollet County?
Nicollet County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 45.4 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 45th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Nicollet County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Strong Wind (High, $2M EAL), Winter Weather (Medium, $255K EAL), Hail (Medium, $954K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Nicollet County compare to other Minnesota counties?
Nicollet County ranks #39 of 87 Minnesota counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Nicollet County had?
FEMA records 22 federal disaster declarations for Nicollet County since 1965, most often 13 for flood events and 3 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms and Flooding, declared in June 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Nicollet County's $18M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.