Cook County, Minnesota Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MN
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 11th
Cook County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 11.2, 11th national percentile), driven primarily by wildfire and lightning exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $4M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Cook County at very low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 11.2 out of 100 — placing it in the 11th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $343K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Medium risk — $543K in expected annual loss and about 22.85 events per year; and cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Low risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 17.74 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $4M in expected annual loss for a population of 6K.
Beyond physical exposure, Cook County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Higher vulnerability is partly offset by strong community resilience and recovery capacity.
The federal record bears this out: Cook County has received 10 federal disaster declarations since 1976, including 4 for severe storm events and 2 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms and Flooding (flood), declared in June 2024.
Among 87 Minnesota counties, Cook County ranks #76 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $343K |
| Lightning | Medium | 22.85 / yr | $543K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 17.74 / yr | $1M |
| Winter Weather | Low | 24.83 / yr | $61K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 1.21 / yr | $513 |
| Drought | Very Low | 17.48 / yr | $6K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.43 / yr | $2M |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.08 / yr | $6K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.14 / yr | $61K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.21 / yr | $11K |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.12 / yr | $5K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.05 / yr | $6K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Cook County has received 10 federal disaster declarations since 1976, most recently Severe Storms and Flooding in June 2024. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (4), Flood (2), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| June 2024 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| July 2022 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| April 2009 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| June 2008 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| July 1999 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Winds, and Flooding |
| June 1976 | Drought | Drought |
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Cook County?
Cook County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 11.2 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 11th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Cook County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Wildfire (Low, $343K EAL), Lightning (Medium, $543K EAL), Cold Wave (Low, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Cook County compare to other Minnesota counties?
Cook County ranks #76 of 87 Minnesota counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Cook County had?
FEMA records 10 federal disaster declarations for Cook County since 1976, most often 4 for severe storm events and 2 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms and Flooding, declared in June 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Cook County's $4M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.