St. Joseph County, Michigan Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MI
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 59th
St. Joseph County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 58.6, 59th national percentile), driven primarily by hail and strong wind exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $19M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates St. Joseph County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 58.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 59th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 2.66 events per year; strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 4.79 events per year; and lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Medium risk — $602K in expected annual loss and about 37.73 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $19M in expected annual loss for a population of 61K.
Beyond physical exposure, St. Joseph County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
History supports the rating: St. Joseph County has received 8 federal disaster declarations since 1978, including 3 for snowstorm events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in March 2020.
Among 83 Michigan counties, St. Joseph County ranks #35 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hail | Medium | 2.66 / yr | $1M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 4.79 / yr | $1M |
| Lightning | Medium | 37.73 / yr | $602K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.14 / yr | $11M |
| Cold Wave | Low | 2.53 / yr | $2M |
| Tornado | Low | 0.24 / yr | $2M |
| Drought | Low | 0.78 / yr | $296K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $442K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.11 / yr | $2K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 1.23 / yr | $80K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 16.47 / yr | $53K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $25K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 3.47 / yr | $156K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $6K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
St. Joseph County has received 8 federal disaster declarations since 1978, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in March 2020. Most frequent causes: Snowstorm (3), Biological (2), Hurricane (1).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| June 2004 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| January 2001 | Snowstorm | Snow |
| January 1999 | Snowstorm | Mi - Severe Weather 1/2 /99 |
| September 1980 | Flood | Severe Storms & Flooding |
| January 1978 | Snowstorm | Blizzards & Snowstorms |
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for St. Joseph County?
St. Joseph County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 58.6 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 59th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in St. Joseph County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hail (Medium, $1M EAL), Strong Wind (Medium, $1M EAL), Lightning (Medium, $602K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does St. Joseph County compare to other Michigan counties?
St. Joseph County ranks #35 of 83 Michigan counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has St. Joseph County had?
FEMA records 8 federal disaster declarations for St. Joseph County since 1978, most often 3 for snowstorm events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in March 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. St. Joseph County's $19M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.