Roscommon County, Michigan Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MI
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 57th
Roscommon County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 56.7, 57th national percentile), driven primarily by winter weather and lightning exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $13M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Roscommon County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 56.7 out of 100 — placing it in the 57th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Roscommon County's expected losses come from winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at High risk — $231K in expected annual loss and about 17.68 events per year; lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Medium risk — $375K in expected annual loss and about 27.10 events per year; and riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Low risk — $10M in expected annual loss and about 0.11 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $13M in expected annual loss for a population of 23K.
Beyond physical exposure, Roscommon County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Higher vulnerability is partly offset by strong community resilience and recovery capacity.
The federal record bears this out: Roscommon County has received 7 federal disaster declarations since 1976, including 2 for biological events and 1 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding (flood), declared in June 2026.
Among 83 Michigan counties, Roscommon County ranks #37 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Winter Weather | High | 17.68 / yr | $231K |
| Lightning | Medium | 27.10 / yr | $375K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.11 / yr | $10M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $120K |
| Hail | Low | 1.56 / yr | $313K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 2.05 / yr | $1M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 1.66 / yr | $452K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.13 / yr | $782K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.10 / yr | $410 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $7K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.19 / yr | $15K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.95 / yr | $36K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $16K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Roscommon County has received 7 federal disaster declarations since 1976, most recently Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding in June 2026. Most frequent causes: Biological (2), Flood (1), Hurricane (1).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| June 2026 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| January 1978 | Snowstorm | Blizzards & Snowstorms |
| March 1977 | Drought | Drought |
| March 1976 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Icing & Flooding |
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Roscommon County?
Roscommon County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 56.7 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 57th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Roscommon County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Winter Weather (High, $231K EAL), Lightning (Medium, $375K EAL), Riverine Flood (Low, $10M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Roscommon County compare to other Michigan counties?
Roscommon County ranks #37 of 83 Michigan counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Roscommon County had?
FEMA records 7 federal disaster declarations for Roscommon County since 1976, most often 2 for biological events and 1 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in June 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Roscommon County's $13M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.