Muhlenberg County, Kentucky Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · KY
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 53th
Muhlenberg County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 53.2, 53th national percentile), driven primarily by ice storm and earthquake exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $14M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Muhlenberg County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 53.2 out of 100 — placing it in the 53rd national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Muhlenberg County's expected losses come from ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at High risk — $979K in expected annual loss and about 1.18 events per year; earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Low risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; and hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 3.04 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $14M in expected annual loss for a population of 31K.
Beyond physical exposure, Muhlenberg County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Muhlenberg County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1969, including 10 for severe storm events and 3 for tornado events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 120 Kentucky counties, Muhlenberg County ranks #42 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Ice Storm | High | 1.18 / yr | $979K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.01 / yr | $2M |
| Hail | Medium | 3.04 / yr | $1M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 5.10 / yr | $1M |
| Heat Wave | Low | 8.32 / yr | $880K |
| Drought | Medium | 3.97 / yr | $407K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 7.05 / yr | $91K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.84 / yr | $1M |
| Tornado | Low | 0.39 / yr | $1M |
| Lightning | Low | 53.49 / yr | $203K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 5.11 / yr | $5M |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.85 / yr | $545 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $12K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $5K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Muhlenberg County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1969, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (10), Tornado (3), Snowstorm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| February 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Landslides |
| July 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| December 2021 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Tornadoes |
| December 2021 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Tornadoes |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
Showing the 10 most recent of 24 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Muhlenberg County?
Muhlenberg County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 53.2 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 53th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Muhlenberg County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Ice Storm (High, $979K EAL), Earthquake (Low, $2M EAL), Hail (Medium, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Muhlenberg County compare to other Kentucky counties?
Muhlenberg County ranks #42 of 120 Kentucky counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Muhlenberg County had?
FEMA records 24 federal disaster declarations for Muhlenberg County since 1969, most often 10 for severe storm events and 3 for tornado events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Muhlenberg County's $14M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.