Lawrence County, Kentucky Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · KY
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 53th
Lawrence County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 53.3, 53th national percentile), driven primarily by landslide and heat wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $13M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Lawrence County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 53.3 out of 100 — placing it in the 53rd national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Lawrence County's expected losses come from landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Medium risk — $41K in expected annual loss and about 1.20 events per year; heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Low risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 4.16 events per year; and riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Medium risk — $11M in expected annual loss and about 1.79 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $13M in expected annual loss for a population of 16K.
Beyond physical exposure, Lawrence County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Lawrence County has received 49 federal disaster declarations since 1967, including 23 for severe storm events and 11 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 120 Kentucky counties, Lawrence County ranks #41 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Landslide | Medium | 1.20 / yr | $41K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 4.16 / yr | $1M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.79 / yr | $11M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $106K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.36 / yr | $36K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 8.58 / yr | $29K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $15K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $74K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 2.82 / yr | $229K |
| Lightning | Low | 49.96 / yr | $81K |
| Hail | Very Low | 3.37 / yr | $85K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.07 / yr | $188K |
| Drought | Very Low | 3.12 / yr | $617 |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.79 / yr | $98K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $6 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Lawrence County has received 49 federal disaster declarations since 1967, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (23), Flood (11), Snowstorm (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| February 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Landslides |
| November 2024 | Tropical Storm | Remnants of Hurricane Helene |
| May 2023 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| February 2022 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides |
| April 2021 | Flood | Severe, Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| March 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Landslides, and Mudslides |
Showing the 10 most recent of 49 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Lawrence County?
Lawrence County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 53.3 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 53th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Lawrence County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Landslide (Medium, $41K EAL), Heat Wave (Low, $1M EAL), Riverine Flood (Medium, $11M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Lawrence County compare to other Kentucky counties?
Lawrence County ranks #41 of 120 Kentucky counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Lawrence County had?
FEMA records 49 federal disaster declarations for Lawrence County since 1967, most often 23 for severe storm events and 11 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Lawrence County's $13M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.