Carter County, Kentucky Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · KY
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 53th
Carter County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 52.7, 53th national percentile), driven primarily by landslide and heat wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $14M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Carter County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 52.7 out of 100 — placing it in the 53rd national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Carter County's expected losses come from landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Medium risk — $46K in expected annual loss and about 1.13 events per year; heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 4.11 events per year; and riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Low risk — $10M in expected annual loss and about 2.39 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $14M in expected annual loss for a population of 27K.
Beyond physical exposure, Carter County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Carter County has received 37 federal disaster declarations since 1978, including 19 for severe storm events and 7 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 120 Kentucky counties, Carter County ranks #43 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Landslide | Medium | 1.13 / yr | $46K |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 4.11 / yr | $2M |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 2.39 / yr | $10M |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.55 / yr | $106K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $62K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 8.68 / yr | $48K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $142K |
| Lightning | Low | 49.48 / yr | $139K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.12 / yr | $715K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 2.81 / yr | $319K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $20K |
| Hail | Very Low | 3.04 / yr | $107K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.89 / yr | $179K |
| Drought | Very Low | 2.67 / yr | $775 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Carter County has received 37 federal disaster declarations since 1978, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (19), Flood (7), Severe Ice Storm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Landslides |
| November 2024 | Tropical Storm | Remnants of Hurricane Helene |
| May 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| May 2023 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| February 2022 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides |
| April 2021 | Flood | Severe, Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| March 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Landslides, and Mudslides |
Showing the 10 most recent of 37 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Carter County?
Carter County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 52.7 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 53th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Carter County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Landslide (Medium, $46K EAL), Heat Wave (Medium, $2M EAL), Riverine Flood (Low, $10M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Carter County compare to other Kentucky counties?
Carter County ranks #43 of 120 Kentucky counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Carter County had?
FEMA records 37 federal disaster declarations for Carter County since 1978, most often 19 for severe storm events and 7 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Carter County's $14M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.