Morgan County, Kentucky Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · KY
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 22th
Morgan County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 22.1, 22th national percentile), driven primarily by landslide and wildfire exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $7M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Morgan County at very low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 22.1 out of 100 — placing it in the 22nd national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Morgan County's expected losses come from landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Medium risk — $45K in expected annual loss and about 1.14 events per year; wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $162K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; and riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Low risk — $5M in expected annual loss and about 1.75 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $7M in expected annual loss for a population of 14K.
Beyond physical exposure, Morgan County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Morgan County has received 34 federal disaster declarations since 1978, including 16 for severe storm events and 6 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 120 Kentucky counties, Morgan County ranks #98 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Landslide | Medium | 1.14 / yr | $45K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $162K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.75 / yr | $5M |
| Winter Weather | Low | 15.21 / yr | $48K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 2.53 / yr | $181K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $22K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $112K |
| Lightning | Low | 50.48 / yr | $111K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 4.14 / yr | $282K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.09 / yr | $442K |
| Hail | Very Low | 3.26 / yr | $84K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.41 / yr | $21K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 1.16 / yr | $192K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 2.98 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Morgan County has received 34 federal disaster declarations since 1978, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (16), Flood (6), Snowstorm (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| February 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Landslides |
| November 2024 | Tropical Storm | Remnants of Hurricane Helene |
| May 2023 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2021 | Flood | Severe, Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| March 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2020 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
Showing the 10 most recent of 34 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Morgan County?
Morgan County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 22.1 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 22th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Morgan County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Landslide (Medium, $45K EAL), Wildfire (Low, $162K EAL), Riverine Flood (Low, $5M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Morgan County compare to other Kentucky counties?
Morgan County ranks #98 of 120 Kentucky counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Morgan County had?
FEMA records 34 federal disaster declarations for Morgan County since 1978, most often 16 for severe storm events and 6 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Morgan County's $7M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.