Metcalfe County, Kentucky Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · KY
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 22th
Metcalfe County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 21.8, 22th national percentile), driven primarily by hail and winter weather exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $5M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Metcalfe County at very low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 21.8 out of 100 — placing it in the 22nd national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Low risk — $338K in expected annual loss and about 2.92 events per year; winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Low risk — $39K in expected annual loss and about 7.00 events per year; and earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Very Low risk — $169K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $5M in expected annual loss for a population of 10K.
Beyond physical exposure, Metcalfe County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Metcalfe County has received 31 federal disaster declarations since 1975, including 15 for severe storm events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in May 2026.
Among 120 Kentucky counties, Metcalfe County ranks #99 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hail | Low | 2.92 / yr | $338K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 7.00 / yr | $39K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $169K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.49 / yr | $814 |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.64 / yr | $49K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.19 / yr | $706K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.84 / yr | $501K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 5.72 / yr | $298K |
| Drought | Low | 3.85 / yr | $39K |
| Lightning | Low | 55.06 / yr | $86K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.61 / yr | $2M |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 3.68 / yr | $86K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $9K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $1K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Metcalfe County has received 31 federal disaster declarations since 1975, most recently Severe Winter Storm in May 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (15), Flood (5), Snowstorm (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| May 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| May 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| February 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Landslides |
| July 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2020 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
Showing the 10 most recent of 31 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Metcalfe County?
Metcalfe County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 21.8 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 22th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Metcalfe County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hail (Low, $338K EAL), Winter Weather (Low, $39K EAL), Earthquake (Very Low, $169K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Metcalfe County compare to other Kentucky counties?
Metcalfe County ranks #99 of 120 Kentucky counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Metcalfe County had?
FEMA records 31 federal disaster declarations for Metcalfe County since 1975, most often 15 for severe storm events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in May 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Metcalfe County's $5M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.