Carroll County, Kentucky Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · KY
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 23th
Carroll County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 23.4, 23th national percentile), driven primarily by tornado and strong wind exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $7M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Carroll County is very low, with a National Risk Index score of 23.4 out of 100 — placing it in the 23rd national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Low risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 0.09 events per year; strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at Medium risk — $532K in expected annual loss and about 5.59 events per year; and riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Low risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 1.50 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $7M in expected annual loss for a population of 11K.
Beyond physical exposure, Carroll County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Carroll County has received 22 federal disaster declarations since 1978, including 11 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 120 Kentucky counties, Carroll County ranks #97 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Tornado | Low | 0.09 / yr | $1M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 5.59 / yr | $532K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.50 / yr | $4M |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.94 / yr | $44K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.27 / yr | $417 |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $91K |
| Lightning | Low | 51.39 / yr | $78K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 1.68 / yr | $236K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 6.37 / yr | $65K |
| Drought | Very Low | 3.16 / yr | $2K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 10.63 / yr | $10K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $2K |
| Hail | Very Low | 3.59 / yr | $29K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $815 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Carroll County has received 22 federal disaster declarations since 1978, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (11), Flood (4), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Landslides |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| April 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2018 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| August 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslide |
| March 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 22 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Carroll County?
Carroll County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 23.4 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 23th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Carroll County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Tornado (Low, $1M EAL), Strong Wind (Medium, $532K EAL), Riverine Flood (Low, $4M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Carroll County compare to other Kentucky counties?
Carroll County ranks #97 of 120 Kentucky counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Carroll County had?
FEMA records 22 federal disaster declarations for Carroll County since 1978, most often 11 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Carroll County's $7M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.