Carlisle County, Kentucky Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · KY
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 19th
Carlisle County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 18.7, 19th national percentile), driven primarily by earthquake and ice storm exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $6M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Carlisle County carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 18.7 out of 100 — placing it in the 19th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Low risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at High risk — $455K in expected annual loss and about 1.43 events per year; and drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $480K in expected annual loss and about 8.65 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $6M in expected annual loss for a population of 5K.
Beyond physical exposure, Carlisle County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
History supports the rating: Carlisle County has received 27 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 15 for severe storm events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 120 Kentucky counties, Carlisle County ranks #101 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Earthquake | Low | 0.01 / yr | $3M |
| Ice Storm | High | 1.43 / yr | $455K |
| Drought | Medium | 8.65 / yr | $480K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.44 / yr | $586 |
| Heat Wave | Low | 10.84 / yr | $201K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 3.30 / yr | $335K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.89 / yr | $452K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.17 / yr | $459K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 6.53 / yr | $26K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $8K |
| Lightning | Very Low | 56.33 / yr | $45K |
| Hail | Very Low | 2.93 / yr | $42K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 2.14 / yr | $877K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $989 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Carlisle County has received 27 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (15), Flood (3), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| May 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| February 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Landslides |
| July 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
Showing the 10 most recent of 27 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Carlisle County?
Carlisle County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 18.7 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 19th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Carlisle County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Earthquake (Low, $3M EAL), Ice Storm (High, $455K EAL), Drought (Medium, $480K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Carlisle County compare to other Kentucky counties?
Carlisle County ranks #101 of 120 Kentucky counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Carlisle County had?
FEMA records 27 federal disaster declarations for Carlisle County since 1973, most often 15 for severe storm events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Carlisle County's $6M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.