Fayette County, Kentucky Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · KY
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 92th
Fayette County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 92.0, 92th national percentile), driven primarily by tornado and cold wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $113M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Fayette County at medium composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 92.0 out of 100 — placing it in the 92nd national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at High risk — $24M in expected annual loss and about 0.15 events per year; cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at High risk — $16M in expected annual loss and about 1.32 events per year; and winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at High risk — $876K in expected annual loss and about 11.84 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $113M in expected annual loss for a population of 322K.
Beyond physical exposure, Fayette County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
History supports the rating: Fayette County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1978, including 9 for severe storm events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 120 Kentucky counties, Fayette County ranks #3 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Tornado | High | 0.15 / yr | $24M |
| Cold Wave | High | 1.32 / yr | $16M |
| Winter Weather | High | 11.84 / yr | $876K |
| Lightning | High | 51.71 / yr | $2M |
| Strong Wind | High | 5.73 / yr | $3M |
| Hail | Medium | 3.12 / yr | $2M |
| Earthquake | Medium | 0.00 / yr | $9M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.57 / yr | $53M |
| Ice Storm | High | 0.88 / yr | $1M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 2.74 / yr | $2M |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $149K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $12K |
| Drought | Very Low | 2.57 / yr | $6K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.10 / yr | $54 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Fayette County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1978, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (9), Flood (3), Snowstorm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Landslides |
| May 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2021 | Flood | Severe, Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| May 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, Mudslides, and Tornadoes |
| February 2009 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 21 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Fayette County?
Fayette County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 92.0 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 92th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Fayette County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Tornado (High, $24M EAL), Cold Wave (High, $16M EAL), Winter Weather (High, $876K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Fayette County compare to other Kentucky counties?
Fayette County ranks #3 of 120 Kentucky counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Fayette County had?
FEMA records 21 federal disaster declarations for Fayette County since 1978, most often 9 for severe storm events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Fayette County's $113M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.