McCracken County, Kentucky Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · KY
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 90th
McCracken County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 89.7, 90th national percentile), driven primarily by earthquake and heat wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $79M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates McCracken County at medium composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 89.7 out of 100 — placing it in the 90th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of McCracken County's expected losses come from earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Medium risk — $38M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Medium risk — $6M in expected annual loss and about 10.63 events per year; and ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 1.23 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $79M in expected annual loss for a population of 68K.
Beyond physical exposure, McCracken County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: McCracken County has received 23 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 10 for severe storm events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 120 Kentucky counties, McCracken County ranks #4 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Earthquake | Medium | 0.01 / yr | $38M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 10.63 / yr | $6M |
| Ice Storm | High | 1.23 / yr | $1M |
| Winter Weather | High | 6.74 / yr | $367K |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 0.95 / yr | $5M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.23 / yr | $5M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 4.02 / yr | $1M |
| Hail | Medium | 2.98 / yr | $942K |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 5.18 / yr | $19M |
| Lightning | Medium | 56.46 / yr | $649K |
| Drought | Medium | 6.55 / yr | $507K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.26 / yr | $2K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $41K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $19K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
McCracken County has received 23 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (10), Flood (5), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Landslides |
| July 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2020 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| April 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
Showing the 10 most recent of 23 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for McCracken County?
McCracken County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 89.7 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 90th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in McCracken County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Earthquake (Medium, $38M EAL), Heat Wave (Medium, $6M EAL), Ice Storm (High, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does McCracken County compare to other Kentucky counties?
McCracken County ranks #4 of 120 Kentucky counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has McCracken County had?
FEMA records 23 federal disaster declarations for McCracken County since 1973, most often 10 for severe storm events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. McCracken County's $79M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.