Warren County, Kentucky Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · KY
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 88th
Warren County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 88.5, 88th national percentile), driven primarily by hail and tornado exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $80M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Warren County is medium, with a National Risk Index score of 88.5 out of 100 — placing it in the 88th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Very High risk — $23M in expected annual loss and about 3.14 events per year; tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at High risk — $10M in expected annual loss and about 0.42 events per year; and earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Medium risk — $6M in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $80M in expected annual loss for a population of 134K.
Beyond physical exposure, Warren County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
History supports the rating: Warren County has received 26 federal disaster declarations since 1969, including 10 for severe storm events and 4 for tornado events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 120 Kentucky counties, Warren County ranks #5 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hail | Very High | 3.14 / yr | $23M |
| Tornado | High | 0.42 / yr | $10M |
| Earthquake | Medium | 0.00 / yr | $6M |
| Ice Storm | High | 0.74 / yr | $1M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 2.54 / yr | $32M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 6.11 / yr | $2M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 0.89 / yr | $4M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 6.09 / yr | $1M |
| Lightning | Medium | 55.11 / yr | $658K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 7.00 / yr | $181K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $46K |
| Drought | Low | 2.43 / yr | $99K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.49 / yr | $542 |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $7K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Warren County has received 26 federal disaster declarations since 1969, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (10), Tornado (4), Flood (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| May 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Landslides |
| July 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| December 2021 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Tornadoes |
| December 2021 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Tornadoes |
| April 2021 | Flood | Severe, Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
Showing the 10 most recent of 26 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Warren County?
Warren County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 88.5 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 88th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Warren County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hail (Very High, $23M EAL), Tornado (High, $10M EAL), Earthquake (Medium, $6M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Warren County compare to other Kentucky counties?
Warren County ranks #5 of 120 Kentucky counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Warren County had?
FEMA records 26 federal disaster declarations for Warren County since 1969, most often 10 for severe storm events and 4 for tornado events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Warren County's $80M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.