Estill County, Kentucky Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · KY
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 42th
Estill County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 41.8, 42th national percentile), driven primarily by riverine flood and winter weather exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $9M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Estill County is very low, with a National Risk Index score of 41.8 out of 100 — placing it in the 42nd national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Low risk — $7M in expected annual loss and about 2.57 events per year; winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Low risk — $60K in expected annual loss and about 14.32 events per year; and avalanche (fast-moving snow and debris sliding down steep mountain slopes) at Very Low risk — $438 in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $9M in expected annual loss for a population of 14K.
Beyond physical exposure, Estill County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Estill County has received 38 federal disaster declarations since 1978, including 21 for severe storm events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 120 Kentucky counties, Estill County ranks #52 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Riverine Flood | Low | 2.57 / yr | $7M |
| Winter Weather | Low | 14.32 / yr | $60K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $438 |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.61 / yr | $1K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 5.94 / yr | $350K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $23K |
| Lightning | Low | 51.60 / yr | $123K |
| Hail | Low | 3.34 / yr | $128K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.95 / yr | $461K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.09 / yr | $528K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $78K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 2.84 / yr | $119K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.46 / yr | $23K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $8K |
| Drought | Very Low | 2.77 / yr | $1K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Estill County has received 38 federal disaster declarations since 1978, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (21), Flood (5), Snowstorm (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| May 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| February 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Landslides |
| November 2024 | Tropical Storm | Remnants of Hurricane Helene |
| July 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2021 | Flood | Severe, Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
Showing the 10 most recent of 38 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Estill County?
Estill County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 41.8 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 42th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Estill County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Riverine Flood (Low, $7M EAL), Winter Weather (Low, $60K EAL), Avalanche (Very Low, $438 EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Estill County compare to other Kentucky counties?
Estill County ranks #52 of 120 Kentucky counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Estill County had?
FEMA records 38 federal disaster declarations for Estill County since 1978, most often 21 for severe storm events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Estill County's $9M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.