Union County, Kentucky Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · KY
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 43th
Union County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 42.8, 43th national percentile), driven primarily by earthquake and ice storm exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $11M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Union County carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 42.8 out of 100 — placing it in the 43rd national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Union County's expected losses come from earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Low risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at High risk — $505K in expected annual loss and about 1.22 events per year; and drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $871K in expected annual loss and about 5.45 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $11M in expected annual loss for a population of 14K.
Beyond physical exposure, Union County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Union County has received 28 federal disaster declarations since 1996, including 17 for severe storm events and 3 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 120 Kentucky counties, Union County ranks #51 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Earthquake | Low | 0.01 / yr | $3M |
| Ice Storm | High | 1.22 / yr | $505K |
| Drought | Medium | 5.45 / yr | $871K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 4.36 / yr | $867K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 8.79 / yr | $466K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 7.21 / yr | $61K |
| Hail | Low | 3.00 / yr | $195K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.29 / yr | $632K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 4.11 / yr | $3M |
| Cold Wave | Low | 1.11 / yr | $343K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $9K |
| Lightning | Low | 52.37 / yr | $74K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.33 / yr | $118 |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $1K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Union County has received 28 federal disaster declarations since 1996, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (17), Snowstorm (3), Flood (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| May 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| February 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Landslides |
| May 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2021 | Flood | Severe, Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2020 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
Showing the 10 most recent of 28 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Union County?
Union County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 42.8 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 43th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Union County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Earthquake (Low, $3M EAL), Ice Storm (High, $505K EAL), Drought (Medium, $871K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Union County compare to other Kentucky counties?
Union County ranks #51 of 120 Kentucky counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Union County had?
FEMA records 28 federal disaster declarations for Union County since 1996, most often 17 for severe storm events and 3 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Union County's $11M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.