Grayson County, Kentucky Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · KY
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 45th
Grayson County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 45.3, 45th national percentile), driven primarily by hail and ice storm exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $11M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Grayson County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 45.3 out of 100 — placing it in the 45th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 3.13 events per year; ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Medium risk — $323K in expected annual loss and about 1.09 events per year; and strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 6.00 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $11M in expected annual loss for a population of 26K.
Beyond physical exposure, Grayson County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Grayson County has received 29 federal disaster declarations since 1974, including 16 for severe storm events and 3 for tornado events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 120 Kentucky counties, Grayson County ranks #50 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hail | Medium | 3.13 / yr | $1M |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 1.09 / yr | $323K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 6.00 / yr | $1M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.35 / yr | $2M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $644K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 5.95 / yr | $368K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.95 / yr | $736K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.07 / yr | $5M |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.84 / yr | $954 |
| Winter Weather | Low | 7.84 / yr | $47K |
| Lightning | Low | 53.85 / yr | $165K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $17K |
| Drought | Very Low | 1.55 / yr | $17K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $3K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Grayson County has received 29 federal disaster declarations since 1974, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (16), Tornado (3), Snowstorm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Landslides |
| July 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| December 2021 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Tornadoes |
| December 2021 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Tornadoes |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
Showing the 10 most recent of 29 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Grayson County?
Grayson County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 45.3 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 45th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Grayson County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hail (Medium, $1M EAL), Ice Storm (Medium, $323K EAL), Strong Wind (Medium, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Grayson County compare to other Kentucky counties?
Grayson County ranks #50 of 120 Kentucky counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Grayson County had?
FEMA records 29 federal disaster declarations for Grayson County since 1974, most often 16 for severe storm events and 3 for tornado events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Grayson County's $11M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.