Clay County, Kentucky Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · KY
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 67th
Clay County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 67.1, 67th national percentile), driven primarily by landslide and wildfire exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $16M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Clay County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 67.1 out of 100 — placing it in the 67th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Medium risk — $57K in expected annual loss and about 1.56 events per year; wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $423K in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; and riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Medium risk — $12M in expected annual loss and about 1.79 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $16M in expected annual loss for a population of 20K.
Beyond physical exposure, Clay County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Clay County has received 48 federal disaster declarations since 1970, including 25 for severe storm events and 9 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in May 2026.
Among 120 Kentucky counties, Clay County ranks #26 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Landslide | Medium | 1.56 / yr | $57K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.01 / yr | $423K |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.79 / yr | $12M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 14.11 / yr | $79K |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 0.84 / yr | $1M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 5.57 / yr | $394K |
| Hail | Low | 3.25 / yr | $173K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $321 |
| Heat Wave | Low | 2.63 / yr | $200K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $102K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.14 / yr | $547K |
| Lightning | Low | 52.52 / yr | $86K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $14K |
| Drought | Very Low | 7.06 / yr | $14K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.24 / yr | $8K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Clay County has received 48 federal disaster declarations since 1970, most recently Severe Winter Storm in May 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (25), Flood (9), Severe Ice Storm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| May 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| May 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| February 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Landslides |
| November 2024 | Tropical Storm | Remnants of Hurricane Helene |
| July 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| May 2023 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
Showing the 10 most recent of 48 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Clay County?
Clay County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 67.1 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 67th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Clay County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Landslide (Medium, $57K EAL), Wildfire (Low, $423K EAL), Riverine Flood (Medium, $12M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Clay County compare to other Kentucky counties?
Clay County ranks #26 of 120 Kentucky counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Clay County had?
FEMA records 48 federal disaster declarations for Clay County since 1970, most often 25 for severe storm events and 9 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in May 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Clay County's $16M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.