Harlan County, Kentucky Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · KY
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 66th
Harlan County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 65.7, 66th national percentile), driven primarily by landslide and strong wind exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $18M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Harlan County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 65.7 out of 100 — placing it in the 66th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Harlan County's expected losses come from landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Medium risk — $42K in expected annual loss and about 1.60 events per year; strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 4.91 events per year; and riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Medium risk — $14M in expected annual loss and about 1.50 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $18M in expected annual loss for a population of 27K.
Beyond physical exposure, Harlan County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Harlan County has received 33 federal disaster declarations since 1967, including 11 for severe storm events and 9 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 120 Kentucky counties, Harlan County ranks #28 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Landslide | Medium | 1.60 / yr | $42K |
| Strong Wind | High | 4.91 / yr | $1M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.50 / yr | $14M |
| Avalanche | Low | 0.01 / yr | $11K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 17.53 / yr | $109K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.01 / yr | $121K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.95 / yr | $1M |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $269K |
| Hail | Low | 3.07 / yr | $169K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $26K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 2.42 / yr | $159K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.11 / yr | $588K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.13 / yr | $16K |
| Lightning | Very Low | 52.34 / yr | $40K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 10.58 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Harlan County has received 33 federal disaster declarations since 1967, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (11), Flood (9), Snowstorm (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| February 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Landslides |
| November 2024 | Tropical Storm | Remnants of Hurricane Helene |
| July 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| May 2023 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| July 2022 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2021 | Flood | Severe, Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| March 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Landslides, and Mudslides |
Showing the 10 most recent of 33 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Harlan County?
Harlan County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 65.7 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 66th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Harlan County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Landslide (Medium, $42K EAL), Strong Wind (High, $1M EAL), Riverine Flood (Medium, $14M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Harlan County compare to other Kentucky counties?
Harlan County ranks #28 of 120 Kentucky counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Harlan County had?
FEMA records 33 federal disaster declarations for Harlan County since 1967, most often 11 for severe storm events and 9 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Harlan County's $18M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.