Barren County, Kentucky Natural Disaster Risk

FEMA National Risk Index assessment · KY

Low

Composite Risk Score

67.9

National percentile: 68th

Barren County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 67.9, 68th national percentile), driven primarily by hail and strong wind exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $20M.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025

Risk Overview

Barren County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 67.9 out of 100 — placing it in the 68th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.

Most of Barren County's expected losses come from hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 2.98 events per year; strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 5.86 events per year; and tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Medium risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 0.34 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $20M in expected annual loss for a population of 44K.

Beyond physical exposure, Barren County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.

The county's disaster history tells the same story: Barren County has received 22 federal disaster declarations since 1993, including 11 for severe storm events and 3 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in May 2026.

Among 120 Kentucky counties, Barren County ranks #25 for overall natural disaster risk.

Expected Annual Loss $20M Annualized county-level EAL
Social Vulnerability Very High Population sensitivity
Community Resilience Medium Capacity to recover
Population 44K Latest estimate

Top Hazards

Medium $1M/yr
High $1M/yr
Medium $4M/yr

All 18 Hazard Risks

Hail Medium 2.98 / yr$1M
Strong Wind High 5.86 / yr$1M
Tornado Medium 0.34 / yr$4M
Winter Weather Medium 6.79 / yr$159K
Lightning Medium 54.86 / yr$514K
Earthquake Low 0.00 / yr$973K
Ice Storm Medium 0.66 / yr$241K
Cold Wave Medium 0.84 / yr$2M
Riverine Flood Low 1.04 / yr$9M
Heat Wave Low 5.11 / yr$461K
Drought Low 3.42 / yr$99K
Hurricane Very Low 0.02 / yr$33K
Landslide Very Low 0.57 / yr$557
Wildfire Very Low 0.00 / yr$4K
Avalanche Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Coastal Flood Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Tsunami Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Volcanic Activity Very Low 0.00 / yr$0

Disaster History

Barren County has received 22 federal disaster declarations since 1993, most recently Severe Winter Storm in May 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (11), Snowstorm (3), Winter Storm (2).

DeclaredTypeDisaster
May 2026Winter StormSevere Winter Storm
January 2026Winter StormSevere Winter Storm
May 2025Severe StormSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes
April 2025Severe StormSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides
April 2025Severe StormSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding
February 2025Severe StormSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides
February 2025Severe StormSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Landslides
July 2024Severe StormSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Landslides, and Mudslides
April 2023Severe StormSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides
December 2021TornadoSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Tornadoes

Showing the 10 most recent of 22 declarations.

Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the overall natural disaster risk for Barren County?

Barren County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 67.9 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 68th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.

What are the top natural hazards in Barren County?

The three highest-rated hazards are Hail (Medium, $1M EAL), Strong Wind (High, $1M EAL), Tornado (Medium, $4M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.

How does Barren County compare to other Kentucky counties?

Barren County ranks #25 of 120 Kentucky counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.

How many federally declared disasters has Barren County had?

FEMA records 22 federal disaster declarations for Barren County since 1993, most often 11 for severe storm events and 3 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in May 2026.

What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?

EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Barren County's $20M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.