Barren County, Kentucky Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · KY
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 68th
Barren County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 67.9, 68th national percentile), driven primarily by hail and strong wind exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $20M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Barren County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 67.9 out of 100 — placing it in the 68th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Barren County's expected losses come from hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 2.98 events per year; strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 5.86 events per year; and tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Medium risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 0.34 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $20M in expected annual loss for a population of 44K.
Beyond physical exposure, Barren County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Barren County has received 22 federal disaster declarations since 1993, including 11 for severe storm events and 3 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in May 2026.
Among 120 Kentucky counties, Barren County ranks #25 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hail | Medium | 2.98 / yr | $1M |
| Strong Wind | High | 5.86 / yr | $1M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.34 / yr | $4M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 6.79 / yr | $159K |
| Lightning | Medium | 54.86 / yr | $514K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $973K |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.66 / yr | $241K |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 0.84 / yr | $2M |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.04 / yr | $9M |
| Heat Wave | Low | 5.11 / yr | $461K |
| Drought | Low | 3.42 / yr | $99K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $33K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.57 / yr | $557 |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $4K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Barren County has received 22 federal disaster declarations since 1993, most recently Severe Winter Storm in May 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (11), Snowstorm (3), Winter Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| May 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| May 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| February 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Landslides |
| July 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| December 2021 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Tornadoes |
Showing the 10 most recent of 22 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Barren County?
Barren County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 67.9 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 68th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Barren County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hail (Medium, $1M EAL), Strong Wind (High, $1M EAL), Tornado (Medium, $4M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Barren County compare to other Kentucky counties?
Barren County ranks #25 of 120 Kentucky counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Barren County had?
FEMA records 22 federal disaster declarations for Barren County since 1993, most often 11 for severe storm events and 3 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in May 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Barren County's $20M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.