Sumter County, Florida Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · FL
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 88th
Sumter County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 87.6, 88th national percentile), driven primarily by hurricane and lightning exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $46M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Sumter County is medium, with a National Risk Index score of 87.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 88th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at High risk — $18M in expected annual loss and about 0.26 events per year; lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at High risk — $978K in expected annual loss and about 92.93 events per year; and wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $46M in expected annual loss for a population of 130K.
Beyond physical exposure, Sumter County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Sumter County has received 34 federal disaster declarations since 1968, including 17 for hurricane events and 5 for tropical storm events. The most recent was Hurricane Milton (hurricane), declared in October 2024.
Among 67 Florida counties, Sumter County ranks #35 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hurricane | High | 0.26 / yr | $18M |
| Lightning | High | 92.93 / yr | $978K |
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.00 / yr | $1M |
| Tornado | High | 0.49 / yr | $5M |
| Strong Wind | High | 1.16 / yr | $1M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 0.21 / yr | $17M |
| Heat Wave | Low | 2.79 / yr | $689K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 3.39 / yr | $668K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $141K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.06 / yr | $199 |
| Hail | Very Low | 2.37 / yr | $56K |
| Drought | Very Low | 16.78 / yr | $4K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Sumter County has received 34 federal disaster declarations since 1968, most recently Hurricane Milton in October 2024. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (17), Tropical Storm (5), Severe Storm (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| October 2024 | Hurricane | Hurricane Milton |
| October 2024 | Hurricane | Hurricane Milton |
| September 2024 | Hurricane | Hurricane Helene |
| September 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Helene |
| August 2024 | Tropical Storm | Hurricane Debby |
| August 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Debby |
| August 2023 | Hurricane | Hurricane Idalia |
| August 2023 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Idalia |
| December 2022 | Hurricane | Hurricane Nicole |
| November 2022 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Nicole |
Showing the 10 most recent of 34 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Sumter County?
Sumter County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 87.6 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 88th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Sumter County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hurricane (High, $18M EAL), Lightning (High, $978K EAL), Wildfire (Medium, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Sumter County compare to other Florida counties?
Sumter County ranks #35 of 67 Florida counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Sumter County had?
FEMA records 34 federal disaster declarations for Sumter County since 1968, most often 17 for hurricane events and 5 for tropical storm events. The most recent was Hurricane Milton, declared in October 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Sumter County's $46M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.